Durban - Three. That’s the number of days before the local government elections take place.
At the centre of the fierce contest for the eThekwini municipality, which has a budget of R42 billion, is the ruling ANC and the official opposition, the DA.
The metro has been in the hands of the ANC since the first democratic elections in 1994. But the DA has vowed to snatch it.
And while parties and candidates accelerated their campaigns to charm voters, political analysts were divided in their analysis over who would emerge victorious in eThekwini between the ANC’s Zandile Gumede and the DA’s Haniff Hoosen.
Political analyst Thabani Khumalo was adamant that Gumede had the edge, while Imraan Buccus, a Research Fellow at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and Auwal Socio-economic Research Institute, argued that Hoosen stood a better chance, citing the factions that had dogged the ANC in the province and eThekwini.
“While the DA is expected to give the ANC a run for its money in metros such as Nelson Mandela, Tshwane and Johannesburg, the opposite is likely to happen in Durban,” said Khumalo.
“Despite its internal problems, the ANC is sure of a landslide victory in eThekwini.”
He added: “Again the ANC’s mayoral candidate Zandile Gumede is a senior politician and a reputable councillor with vast experience at ward and Exco levels, as opposed to the DA candidate.
“Based on the past delivery record of the ANC-led eThekwini metro and its successes in working with the opposition in the metro Exco, Gumede is expected to lead an effective campaign.”
But Buccus had a different view. “While the ANC remains strong in eThekwini, the recent fractures within the movement and the heightened disillusionment with the ANC may cost it dearly,” he said, adding that Gumede’s contested rise to power and the fact that this had “demobilised” significant sections of the ANC had to be taken into account.
“In some ways, this contributes to Haniff Hoosen having the upper hand. When all falls into place and the sums add up, it may be possible for the DA and EFF to get into bed (together) in order to keep the ANC out. It seems like coalition politics will soon be the order of the day,” he said.
Late last year, Gumede dislodged the outgoing mayor James Nxumalo during the ANC eThekwini regional conference, subsequently becoming the chairwoman of the party’s biggest region with 103 branches.
Gumede, who was born and raised in Inanda, is the former treasurer of eThekwini.
Hoosen was born in Chatsworth and began his political career in the 1990s. He served as a councillor on the eThekwini Municipality executive committee for a number of years. He is a former member of Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats. In 2010 he played a central role in bringing the vision of Helen Zille and De Lille to reality when the ID and DA signed a co-operation agreement to combine their efforts to build a stronger and more united alternative for South Africa.
In any case, history will be made come August 3. If Gumede wins she will become the first woman to lead the city since 1994.
On the other hand, if Hoosen emerges victorious, the municipality will be led by a new party for the first time in the new democratic dispensation.
Khumalo said the squabbling in the Minority Front was likely to benefit the DA, but the votes would not be enough for them to win the metro. The ANC was likely to get some of the disgruntled NFP supporters.
This is after the Independent Electoral Commission disqualified Zanele KaMagwaza’s party from participating in the polls when it failed to make its payment to the IEC. The party announced it would approach the Electoral Court “as a matter of urgency” following the decision on Friday by the IEC to dismiss its application to review its disqualification ruling.
In the run-up to the election analysts have agreed that stakes are high. In the 2011 polls the ANC won 61 percent of the vote and 126 seats on the council, followed by the DA, which won 21 percent of the vote and 43 seats.
“In the uMsunduzi District Municipality, the DA’s Mergan Chetty will lock horns with the ANC’s businessman-turned-politician Themba Njilo for the mayoral position. Chetty, is a former ANC councillor, was born in Pietermaritzburg. He was first elected as the ANC Ward Councillor in 2006.
He later defected to the DA and moved quickly through the ranks.
The DA has pinned its hopes on him for Wednesday.
He is also the deputy chairman of the party in the province.
On the other hand Njilo, whose political credentials have been questioned, is fighting for the ANC to retain the municipality. Khumalo said Njilo would win not because he is a known politician, but because the ANC still had support in the region, despite the infighting.
Makhosini Nkosi is the ANC’s mayoral candidate in Newcastle.
The DA won’t be fielding any candidates. Nkosi is the former manager of legal services.
He is currently serving as an MPL in the KZN Legislature and has also served in the regional executive of the Emalahleni region in Newcastle. Bheki Mngomezulu of the Mzala Nxumalo Centre said it would be a one horse race in that region. Analysts agreed that the Ray Nkonyeni Municipality, which is a merger of Hibiscus Coast Municipality and Ezinqoleni Municipality on the South Coast, would remain in the hands of the ANC. Nomusa Mqwebu has been deployed by the ANC as its mayoral candidate in that region.
The DA won’t field any candidates in that region either, but will contest wards. Mqwebu is the current mayor of the Hibiscus Coast Municipality.
She has also been deputy mayor of the Ugu District and sat on the regional executive committee of the Lower South Coast.
She is the ANC Women’s League regional chairwoman. The DA said it would appoint mayors after the elections if successful.
The ANC’s Mdu Mhlongo, the current mayor of uMhlathuze in the north of KZN, remained the mayoral candidate for that municipality. Other parties were not fielding candidates.
The party said Mhlongo had been nominated because he had the administrative and political experience.
Mhlongo was a speaker in the same council before being appointed mayor.
He serves as the ANC Musa Dladla regional deputy chairman.
Nkandla municipality, at President Jacob Zuma’s homestead, has been under control of the IFP since 2012.
The ANC lost in a by-election and, as a result, the IFP gained the majority with 14 seats on the council and took control of the municipality.
The IFP’s Thami Ntuli is the current mayor.
The ANC is not fielding any mayoral candidate in the municipality, but will be contesting wards.
IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi campaigns in the IFP stronghold of Nkandla - which, ironically, is the home of President Jacob Zuma.
Sunday Tribune