Evidence is mounting that Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe will stand against President Jacob Zuma for the ANC leadership at the party’s elective conference in December.
It was reported at the weekend that Motlanthe would not entertain attempts by Zuma lobbyists to cut a deal that would include him on the president’s leadership slate for the top six positions of the ANC’s national executive committee at Mangaung.
Analysts on Sunday said this was a clear signal that Motlanthe was likely to take up the political cudgels against Zuma.
Political analyst Professor Susan Booysen agreed that Motlanthe now appeared to be campaigning for the top job. “Zuma is doing an ‘I am not campaigning’ campaign,” she said. “It is probable that, in that context, Motlanthe has indicated, rather than denied, that he is available.
“It is a strange kind of campaign – even stranger than Zuma’s, but it does constitute campaigning. Unless he says, forget it, I am not in the race, then he’s in. Given the context, it could actually be a very clever cat-and-mouse campaign.
“Large numbers in the ANC would like him in there – and he probably has people working very subtly on the ground. It is possible that he is enjoying watching Zuma’s campaign suffering a serious knock – as seen at the policy conference, what happened in Thohoyandou and when Zuma ran away from Youth Day in Port Elizabeth.
“Motlanthe is probably highly aware that important enclaves of Zuma’s campaign are imploding – in eThekweni, regions of KwaZulu-Natal and in the Eastern Cape, where he is not secure in his base.
“He has fallen out with a powerful component of the youth league – and Cosatu is not united. Only two of the provinces – the Free State and North West – are secure in terms of Zuma.
“Motlanthe has the benefit of being able to observe without lifting a finger. He could be saying, ‘let him play himself out, let his own people eat him alive’. So, Motlanthe’s is a totally different kind of campaign – but it is one.
“It would have been so easy for him to say, ‘Forget it. I am out. I don’t want to run’. He is willingly running with the uncertainty.”
Booysen believed ANC leaders were “shrewd enough” to read Motlanthe’s signals. “I have little doubt that those on the ground know these behaviours are a ‘declaration of candidacy’,” she said.
Independent analyst, Dr Somadoda Fikeni, said Motlanthe was “most likely to stand”.
“His recent appearances, his critique of the second transition document and the swipe he took at the SACP – (is) a leader stepping outside of the mainstream and becoming critical.
“But at the same time, he remains very cautious not to engage in an open declaration of his intentions, possibly because of the agreement that the leadership nomination process only begins in October,” Fikeni said.
“It appears he is sending a signal to say, ‘Hey, I’m available in October, but you know the constraints – I can’t go outside the ANC-agreed-upon time to openly campaign’.
“He is sending a signal to say he is a disciplined member of the ANC (and) knows the dilemma of not showing his hand.”
In a strong rebuttal, Motlanthe’s spokesman, Thabo Masebe, said the process of electing leaders must be left to ANC’s branches.
“The deputy president believes that leaders themselves should not get involved in canvassing or lobbying for support but should leave the process to the branches,” Masebe said.
“Branches should be allowed to nominate leaders and no one should engage in attempts to make leadership arrangements,” he added.
Masebe was responding to a report in the Sunday Times that influential supporters of Zuma’s bid for a second term were attempting to persuade Motlanthe to remain ANC deputy president under Zuma, to avoid a destructive leadership battle similar to the one that divided the ANC before its last national conference in Polokwane, five years ago.
Asked whether he had knowledge of such a lobby, Masebe declined to comment. He also steadfastly refused to reveal whether Motlanthe intended standing against Zuma.
Asked whether he had knowledge of a lobby attempting to strike a deal with Motlanthe, Masebe said: “I don’t know where that comes from. The deputy president cannot deal with faceless people. No one has gone to the deputy president to discuss with him any specific ANC leadership position.
“But if such attempts were to be made, he would not entertain them, as he understands the processes of the ANC and respects the right of branches to nominate leaders.”
Masebe stopped short of saying Motlanthe would challenge Zuma if party branches nominated him to stand.
“I don’t know whether it means he is challenging anyone. The deputy president’s view (on) leadership positions is that he serves because he was elected. He will avail himself to serve the organisation in whatever capacity the conference decides. There is no position reserved for Motlanthe.”
On suggestions that Motlanthe’s supporters and his opponents were becoming frustrated at his refusal to show his hand, Masebe said: “I don’t know how much clearer they want him to be. He does not have a position that he wants to be nominated for. He will leave it to the branches to decide.
“Why is it only him? Why do they not approach all the other leaders? The rules are very, very clear. As a leader, he can’t go to the people and say; ‘nominate me for this position’.
“That’s not correct. He doesn’t want to get involved in canvassing support. If he goes out and says, ‘I want to be deputy president or secretary-general or treasurer’, it would be trying to influence the nomination process – and that would be divisive. He will not engage in such activities.”
Zuma’s spokesman, Mac Maharaj, would not be drawn on the matter on Sunday, saying the questions related to internal matters of the ANC.
On lobbyists for Zuma attempting to cut a deal with Motlanthe, Maharaj said: “I don’t know whom you are referring to. Speak to the supporters.”
Political Bureau