Durban - For the first time in nearly nine years KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC’s biggest and most powerful province, appears to be fragmented and patchy, its closely-guarded unity having all but vanished.
Gone are the days when KwaZulu-Natal jumped hurdle after hurdle in ensuring the tsunami that is President Jacob Zuma entrenched all political hegemony.
However, as things stand today, the odds are not in favour of a post-Zuma political outlook.
With all 11 regions having held their conference and the eThekwini region emerging under murky conditions, it has become a known secret that the tide is turning.
The results mean a new pecking order in the run up to both the provincial and national conferences in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Provincial secretary Sihle Zikalala is known to be a Zuma man, but he is haplessly watching his grip slip as rebellion takes form.
The disputed eThekwini regional conference this week laid bare the divisions between Zikalala and his chairman Senzo Mchunu.
Mchunu is believed to have supported eThekwini Mayor James Nxumalo to chair the ANC’s biggest region in South Africa, while Zikalala is believed to have supported Zandile Gumede, who narrowly lost the election two weeks ago.
While Zikalala was howled at and heckled during an ANC meeting held at the Durban City Hall just a week before the regional conference, Mchunu faced similar wrath this week when thousands of angry pro-Zikalala/Gumede supporters marched to the party’s provincial headquarters.
Mchunu was forced off stage with the multitudes accusing him of rigging the eThekwini election.
Both men have downplayed the divisions, saying such matters were being addressed internally.
Zikalala has maintained that there were no divisions between him and Mchunu and that they are both working together as comrades in the best interests of the ANC.
A former ANC Youth League leader revealed that while things have been bubbling under the surface since the provincial general council in March 2013, the eThekwini region ructions brought matters to a head.
“Comrade Sihle always knew he had the means to take a shot at the chairmanship. With Comrade Willies (Mchunu) no longer willing to challenge the chair, Sihle looked around and the gap was there. He has the support of President Jacob Zuma,” he said.
This was concurred by a regional chairperson that supports Mchunu, saying the premier gets along well with ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, who has his sights on the deputy presidency if Cyril Ramaphosa ascends.
However, should Zikalala manage to edge Mchunu in the elective conference next year, the status quo will remain much as Zuma wishes.
A national executive committee member from KwaZulu-Natal told The Sunday Independent on Thursday night that Zuma wants to be replaced by a strong candidate.
He said mention has been made of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the current AU chairwoman, whose term expires in 2016.
“Comrade Nkosazana is a strong candidate. She has acted as the country’s president before. She’s the only candidate to have served every president of South Africa post-1994 and she emerged strong in the 53rd ANC conference in Mangaung, even though she was no longer in the country,” he said.
“If Comrade Nkosazane decides to give it another shot in the AU, then in all likelihood the treasurer-general (Zweli Mkhize) could step up. I really don’t see Mantashe gunning for deputy presidency after staying a decade in the top six, so he might be a great challenger to Ramaphosa. This will be interesting as both men first cut their political teeth in the unions,” he said.
The member said this time the ANC does not expect the rivalry to be as heated as it was in Polokwane in 2007. He said Joe Phaahla, who is on the NEC, was working hard to plug the leadership holes.
But he said the winner between Mantashe and Ramaphosa would ensure the discontinuation of a Zuma legacy after 2019.
If Zikalala ascends to the chair, ANC talk in KwaZulu-Natal suggests his preferred replacement was not his deputy Nomusa Dube, but Musa Dladla (Empangeni/Richards Bay) regional chairman, Thulani Mashaba.
Mashaba leads the province’s second-biggest region with 99 strong branches. “Comrade Nomusa could easily be the province’s deputy chairwoman if Comrade Willes steps down,” he said.
The Musa Dladla region is a strong Zikalala area. It is also no surprise that Zuma hails from the region that incorporates Nkandla, as is Senzo Mchunu whose wife is the district mayor of the region.
Mchunu’s wife Thembeka was voted out of the Musa Dladla regional structure last year where she was a top five official.
This week, Mashaba vehemently denied he or his regions were supporting anyone between Mchunu and Zikalala saying they support every top five official of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal “100 percent”.
“The Musa Dladla region supports neither Zikalala nor Senzo Mchunu but the ANC,” he said.
“Even during the time when we elected them we went to the branches and they made their mandate clear,” added Mashaba.
Sunday Independent