Flying at nearly 400km/h, fighting possible spatial disorientation and desperately trying to climb through thick cloud and fog, the pilots of the two doomed Albatross aircraft would have had less than two seconds to avoid the cliffs they crashed into.
Brian Gruar and Peter Geldenhuys, both highly experienced pilots with years of flying time behind them, had, according to aviation experts and enthusiasts, disobeyed aviation’s golden rule: If it is too foggy you don’t fly.
But, claim these experts, the two were not “cowboys” and were not the type to take unnecessary risks or to endanger their passengers lives.
On board their Piaggio P166 Albatross maritime reconnaissance patrol aircraft, were the wives of two senior South African civilian aviation pilots, three young children, renowned aviation experts, an air show director and a photographer. The 13 had all attended Tzaneen’s annual air show on Saturday where the aircraft had performed.
All the bodies were on Wednesday transported to the state mortuary in Pretoria where pathologists will work with family members to identify the bodies through DNA.
The questions about what went wrong has deepened the mystery behind what is being dubbed South Africa’s aviation Black Sunday and left more questions than answers.
Among the questions aviation experts believe will never be answered is why Gruar and Geldenhuys took the route they did to reach their destination of Rand Airport; what happened on board the aircraft in the final minutes before impact; why no radio contact was made with the Tzaneen Airport if they got into difficulty; and, why they were flying by Visual Flying Rules (VFR) in poor weather conditions.
Although there are no hard and fast rules to VFR, it is highly recommended it be avoided, especially at night or when poor weather conditions diminish a pilot’s visibility. VFR requires a pilot to have sight of the ground at all times while flying.
An aviation industry expert, close to those on board the doomed flights, said there were more questions than answers. Asking not to be named, the pilot said one question being asked was whether the “experienced” pilots had disobeyed another cardinal aviation rule.
“That rule,” said the pilot, “is never rush to get home.”
The pilot said his two colleagues would not have seen the cliff until the very last second. “Even if they had throttled back they would have been flying at about 250knots/h (400km/h). Travelling at this speed, and possibly suffering from spatial disorientation which could have been caused by the fog, means that when they did see the cliff as they tried to climb out of the bad weather they would have had less than two seconds to avoid it.
“There was simply not enough time to do anything, especially as they were flying in close formation,” he said.
Mopani Disaster Management Centre head Hannes Steyn earlier this week said the aircraft were flying in formation when they took off.
The pilot said to fly VFR one had to get permission from the control tower, “which would be obtained after informing the tower what instruments your aircraft had”.
“The pilots would have known that the conditions were bad and if you are flying in Tzaneen, you would know about the mountains.
“With the equipment they had on board, unless they were suffering from spatial disorientation, they would have known exactly where they were,” he said.
Johnny Smit, SA Aeronautical Search and Rescue head, said the golden VFR rule was, “in good weather conditions you can fly VFR, but in bad weather conditions you fly by instrument”.
“The weather might have been good enough in Tzaneen to fly VFR, but once they got to the escarpment, it might have deteriorated, forcing the pilots to climb to try to get out of the cloud and then ultimately crash. There are just too many questions.”
Aviation magazine editor, Guy Leitch, who was at the air show, said the weather at the airport on Sunday morning was poor with cloud touching the mountain tops 30km away.
“Most pilots chose to fly back via Polokwane, which is a common route used by pilots when the Lowveld gets clouded.
“Those who did fly through the mountains got through by flying through gaps in the clouds and the valleys. Unfortunately we do not know why the Albatrosses crashed,” he said.
The wings and the tail would have snapped off, but everything else would have compacted on impact, he said. Photographs show pieces of metal and airframe molten and twisted together by the impact and fire lying about 200m apart from each other at the base of the cliff, about 30km south-west of Tzaneen.
Most of the bodies, some believed to be beyond recognition, were recovered from around the wreckage.
A source at the crash site said:
“Those on board would not have even heard the ‘bang’ when they crashed. They would have been dead before they knew it. There is nothing the pilots could have done.” - Pretoria News