If the 2010/11 crime statistics, released by Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa this week are to be believed, major crime in the country is going down.
However, this contrasts with the spike in violent and brutal hijackings in Durban in recent weeks that have left victims traumatised (see accompanying stories).
While 2.1 million serious crimes were registered in 2010/2011, the figure is down by 50 400 cases this year.
There was a decrease in the number of major crimes such as murder, attempted murder, common assault and sexual crimes.
But there was an increase in theft from motor vehicles from 120 862 in 2009/10 to 123 091 in 2010/11.
Drug-related crimes also rose from 134 840 to 150 673 reported incidents.
In KwaZulu-Natal, various categories of crime saw a dip, including murder, sexual crimes, attempted murder and common assault.
However, reported incidents of theft from motor vehicles rose from from 14 221 in 2009/10 to 15 945 in 2010/11.
Drug-related crime in the province was also up from 28 693 to 32 457 in 2010/11.
While the number of murders in KZN decreased it was still the third-highest figure in the country.
But many South Africans still have to live with the horror of crime.
A young Bluff resident, who asked not to be named, was recently stopped at a robot and forced to drive to a dead end.
Waiting in the bush at the end of the road, was a man with two packets who jumped into the car and made the victim drive 20km to a spot where another two men were waiting with a van and a water drum.
They put him in the empty drum, closed the lid and placed it in the back of the van.
He thought he wouldn’t survive because he battled to breathe. After driving for several hours, the hijackers pulled over and lifted the lid.
Not realising he was in Umtata, he ran off. He flagged down passing motorists, who helped him call his family.
Still traumatised, he says crime statistics don’t reflect the impact of such incidents.
The figures have drawn mixed responses from industry experts. The head of the Institute of Security Studies Crime and Justice Programme, Gareth Newham, said most South Africans thought the statistics were a reflection of police performance, which was not true.
“Most of the crimes committed are interpersonal – the people who commit the crimes know their victims and sometimes the police can do little to help. The decrease has nothing to do with the police or their management strategy; it has everything to do with preventative measures by social workers and the confiscation of illegal firearms.
“These factors could have contributed to the decline because the police only intervene in organised crimes,” said Newham.
Security Association of South Africa president Jenny Reid said the decline was good news, but we should aim for a further decline. Too many crimes were still not being reported, she said.
“While some have cited the World Cup as one reason for the decrease, it involved only two months out of 12, so we can’t really base the statistics on that,” she said.
Sergeant Stephen Clark, the Westville SAPS representative for the Westville Community Police Forum (CPF), confirmed there had been a spike in crime in the Highway area in the past two weeks but said it had decreased overall in Westville.
“Armed robberies and car hijackings have stabilised, but residential break-ins have increased substantially,” he said
Haden Searles, who chairs Durban North CPF, said although crime had decreased in Durban North, theft from motor vehicles had increased through jamming of cloned car remote devices.
“Theft of motor vehicles, especially on the road and not in a secure area, is a problem. House break-ins have fallen, but this is seasonal with more occurrences in winter.”
Kevin Harvey, who chairs the Westville CPF, said murders and assaults in the area had decreased. The hijack and murder of an elderly woman in the north was an exception.
“But residential break-ins have increased and this is of concern. The CPF tries to ensure residents are taking the necessary precautions.”
Fani Ngubane, who chairs the Pinetown CPF, said robberies and burglaries at homes were the biggest problem areas, with hijacking and murders not so pressing.
Dianne Kohler Barnard, DA Shadow Minister of Police, welcomed the trend, but said the decrease had to be seen in the context of the World Cup which had been relatively crime-free.
She said this indicated the tactics used against crime in that period should be made part of the policing structure.
The drug problem in KZN was reaching the level of a pandemic, she said, especially since the closure of the specialised narcotics unit.
“The almost 10.2 percent increase in drug-related crimes are linked to violent and vicious crimes. This province has a reputation of shooting and killing first – more so than any other.”
Criminals were now also likely to shoot first and ask questions later, she said, with criminals getting bigger guns and becoming more vicious.
“Civilians are being caught in the crossfire.
“Of concern is the large number of police firearms lost and stolen each year. Responding to questions, the Auditor-General admitted 3 226 SAPS firearms were lost and stolen in 2009/10 and only 233 were recovered. A total of 1 335 SAPS firearms were lost and stolen in 2010/11 and only 160 were recovered.
“These are huge numbers, with the cost of replacing these firearms running into millions, and if the guns fall into criminals hands lives are lost,” she said.
Julie Berg of the University of Cape Town Centre for Criminology was sceptical of the decline because she believed a lot of factors were not considered.
“How do we reconcile the statistics with the human experience? Some crimes are not reported and the police are increasingly relying on mortuaries for statistics, and we question that.”
Clinical psychologist James Sharrat said trauma could have a lifelong impact.
“The first year is the most difficult, but the sooner professional help is obtained, the quicker they can deal with the trauma and get on with their lives.” - Additional reporting by Devaksha Moodley. - Tribune