President Jacob Zuma would today be “relishing the removal of his nemesis”, and could now be more hopeful of winning a second term in December. This was one interpretation of the impact of Julius Malema’s expulsion from the ANC on his arch-enemy, Zuma.
“There is a relief for the Zuma group, because Zuma can step back now and relish the removal of his nemesis,” political analyst Professor Somadoda Fikeni, from Unisa, told the Cape Argus.
“At this moment, we could say he’s in a stronger position” for the looming battle in December.
But Fikeni warned that Malema’s expulsion could also strengthen Zuma’s opponents.
“The people who are going to challenge Zuma’s leadership may have come to a point in which Malema was becoming a liability. They will now not have the albatross, Malema, hanging around their necks.
“He was unpredictable, and you did not know what he would say from one day to the next. They were already wary of being associated with him. They will now say they are principled members of the ANC, instead.
“There will still be a challenge against Zuma. They will go and regroup. People who may believe that Malema has been mistreated will rally behind anyone, and will continue to do so with intensity.
“There’s enough ground that many people are frustrated with poverty, the lack of transformation, etcetera – for a challenge against Zuma to continue,” Fikeni said.
Political analyst Professor Steven Friedman also poured cold water on any notion that Malema’s expulsion made it any easier for Zuma to be re-elected ANC president in December.
“Malema’s importance has been over-estimated for a long time. Zuma’s prospects will be determined by strategic plans made by far more senior ANC leaders,” Friedman said.
Malema’s own prospects, meanwhile, look bleaker than ever.
Hours after the news of his expulsion, some of his former close allies began to waver in their support by accepting the final ruling of the party’s disciplinary committee of appeals.
The league had vowed to defy the finding if it went against Malema and retain him as its president.
But youth league national executive committee (NEC) member Mdu Manana said Malema’s deputy, Ronald Lamola, would automatically take over the reins as acting president.
“As we speak, the deputy president is leading the youth league,” said Manana on Wednesday.
The expulsion and suspension of three of the league’s senior members was a big blow, he said, but they had to accept the decision.
He said the NEC would convene an urgent meeting to discuss whether they would support the three – Malema, spokesman Floyd Shivambu, who was suspended for three years, and secretary-general Sindiso Magaqa, who was suspended for a year – in trying to rally members to petition the ANC ’s NEC to review the ruling.
Manana said Magaqa’s deputy, Kenetswe Mosenogi, would also take over from him with immediate effect, according to the ANC’s constitution.
Political analyst and UCT politics lecturer Zwelethu Jolobe said Malema’s expulsion was the ANC’s way of showing it was still in charge and would not tolerate anyone who did not toe the line.
He said Malema could petition the ANC’s national working committee to take the matter to the NEC and, depending how much support he has within the NEC, the matter could go all the way to the December elective conference in Mangaung.
“But I highly doubt that the NEC or the conference would go against its own disciplinary procedures,” said Jolobe. “Either way you look at it, the prospects do not look good. If they want him out, they can keep him out.”
Malema was suspended, in November, for five years for sowing division in the party and for bringing it into disrepute. He was found to have done so by unfavourably comparing the leadership style of President Jacob Zuma to that of former president Thabo Mbeki, and for his remarks on bringing about regime change in Botswana.
On February 29, the national disciplinary committee announced the sanction against him had been increased to expulsion after it had been instructed by the appeals committee to allow arguments in mitigation and aggravation of sentence. He appealed and it was this appeal that the NDCA dismissed on Tuesday.
Shivambu was found guilty of sowing division and bringing the ANC into disrepute. He was suspended from the ANC for three years for swearing at a journalist and for issuing a statement calling for a change of government in Botswana.
Magaqa was punished for making derogatory remarks about Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba. Initially, his suspension was contingent on him apologising to Gigaba within 15 days. Magaqa apologised to Gigaba in a statement sent to the media on March 10, but the appeals committee said it had not been furnished with evidence that Magaqa had met the conditions imposed on him.
Malema was also axed by the Limpopo provincial branch from serving in its provincial executive committee, which he has served on since December.
The province’s ANC spokesman, Makondelele Mathivha, said they would accept the decision, even though they would have preferred “a different outcome”.
The tripartite alliance partners, the Cosatu and the SACP, have also distanced themselves, saying they did not want to meddle in the ANC’s affairs. Cosatu issued a statement on Wednesday supporting the ANC’s decision to expel Malema and suspend Magaqa and Shivambu.
The SACP said Malema ’s expulsion should serve as a lesson to the tripartite alliance that ill-discipline and factionalism led to disintegration.
The Young Communist League of SA also supported the ANC.
However, the Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans Association believes Malema could still claw his way back into the ANC if he humbles himself and apologises.
National spokesman Ike Moroe said that although the association supported the decision, he believed Malema still had a future in the ANC.
Moroe said Malema should use this opportunity to do a “serious introspection” as an individual and take a hard look at himself and where he went wrong. - Cape Argus, Political Bureau