Collective action needed is code speak for “let’s just talk about Islamic State problem”, writes Peter Fabricius.
President Jacob Zuma cautioned, after meeting his fellow Brics leaders at the G20 summit now taking place in Antalya, “against linking the (Paris) terrorist attacks to the refugee crisis in Europe”. “Refugees flocking to Europe in search of peace and a better life must not be labelled and ostracised as a result of this attack. The attacks do not mean that every refugee is a terrorist.”
It was not clear if Zuma was aware at the time, that one of the suicide bombers had reportedly smuggled himself into Paris from Syria along the migrant route.
Zuma was still, of course, quite correct that every refugee is not a terrorist.
Yet, two events are certainly linked in several ways. One is that the brutality of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and in Syria has been one of the main driving forces of the exodus of the people of those countries to Europe. And IS was responsible for the Paris attacks. In a sense, IS has created its own route into the heart of Europe.
And, of course, the Paris attacks and the influx of migrants will now be firmly linked in the minds of many Europeans, not least right-wingers, helping them to whip up opposition to the migrants.
Zuma went on to say that “addressing the root causes of terrorism is critical in order to find lasting solutions. In this regard, collective global action against all forms of terrorism is imperative. This must be done under the auspices of the United Nations”.
It would be illuminating to know just what he meant by that. No doubt addressing the root causes of terrorism is critical. But that sounds like a long-term project. Meanwhile, we have the ruthless, deadly and growing IS which is killing more and more people every week.
Pope Francis, not given to melodrama, has declared that we are now engaged in World War III. What is to be done about that immediate danger, while roots causes are patiently addressed? After the attacks in Paris, some believe French President Francois Hollande will invoke, perhaps at the G20 summit, Article 5 of the Nato treaty, which obliges every member of the organisation to come to the assistance of another member which is attacked.
When asked what the US would do in response, President Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said yesterday that the US would intensify its air attacks on Raqqa, the IS headquarters in northern Syria.
However, everyone knows that air attacks will not be enough. It’s been pointed out that about 75 percent of US aircraft against IS in Raqqa and elsewhere in Syria and Iraq return to base without dropping their bombs. That’s because they either cannot find their IS targets or their targets are so intermingled with civilians that bombing them would kill large numbers of innocents.
Practically, only a huge ground attack on Raqqa and other IS strongholds – in support of the very courageous Kurdish peshmerga fighters who are now the most effective force against them – would stand any reasonable chance of success.
Needless to say, the political will for such a commitment certainly does not exist. Not now. But if migrant flows and IS attacks in Europe continue, as they probably both will, that political will might start to emerge.
In an ideal world, Zuma is right to suggest that collective action should be lead by the UN or regional multilateral organisations such as the African Union. But too often – witness also the AU’s flaccid response to South Sudan and Burundi – this is really just code for: “Let’s just talk about the problem.”
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