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Who can pick a WC winner?


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AFP / Gallo Images

The Proteas have prepared well for the World Cup, but can they get it together mentally?

For the first time since 1999 the Cricket World Cup will open with not one of the top nations looking like an overwhelming favourite for the one-day format’s most prestigious title.

That is not necessarily bad – in fact the International Cricket Council might enjoy it more than most. Australia may have won the last three World Cups and the last two Champions Trophy tournaments, but that pedigree aside their form in all formats has been woeful of late.

Former England coach Duncan Fletcher described the current 50-over world champions as looking as if they were in the “wilderness” with their form having taken a huge dip – they’ve won six of their last 12 matches.

But can you really ignore their pedigree?

They may not have Hayden, Gilchrist and McGrath at their disposal for the Indian tournament on the sub-continent, but they have Ponting, Clarke, Hussey and Watson who all know what it takes to win an event – experience some of their other rivals don’t have.

That experience aside though, they do appear vulnerable, and the other big teams will know that – the fear factor that Ponting leaned on heavily especially ahead of the group game against South Africa in St Kitts four years ago is no longer there.

Aussies_win1

Australia have not looked like World Cup winners lately, but they do have players they can bank on at a tournament they know how to win.

AP

There’s no doubt other teams aren’t filled with dread at the prospect of facing them, but just how ready are they to usurp the Aussies?

South Africa aren’t the well-oiled, all-powerful looking machine ahead of this tournament as they were ahead of the 2007 event – when they went to the Caribbean tournament ranked No 1 in the world – or Hansie Cronje’s men of 1999, a side that more and more looks like one of the best teams not to win a World Cup.

This South African side – which will be led for the final time in ODIs by Graeme Smith – has a lot of youngsters, a few grizzled veterans; Smith and Jacques Kallis – and a potential X-factor in Imran Tahir. Yet they haven’t played together or won together as often as previous South African World Cup sides, but given how previous campaigns ended that may not necessarily be a bad thing.

Because of the inexperience of players like Colin Ingram, Dave Miller, Lonwabo Tsotsobe and at international level Tahir, much will depend on their preparation in India in the fortnight before the tournament.

They play Zimbabwe and then Australia in warm-up matches before their opening game against the West Indies on February 24.

“South Africa have planned well,” said Fletcher, who in his role as the side’s batting consultant will accompany the side during that period of training.

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Imran Tahir will have to be used in a way no spinner has ever been used in a South African team. Can Graeme Smith put the spinner's talents to good use in conditions which should suit him?

Gallo Images

“They’ve had a couple of A tours to that part of the world, so young players have gone across and played there. But there is still a huge jump up from that level and it’s about experience at the highest level which will be of the utmost important.”

Even in trying to explain who he’d regard as favourites though Fletcher got in a slight twist.

“I think it’s quite an open World Cup, there are no firm favourites. One can’t rule out Sri Lanka, they’re always dangerous. India must be favourites on their home ground. All they have to look at, is that they are going to be under enormous pressure.”

Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s response to Fletcher’s assertion would be that his side have to play under pressure all the time, even when they’re playing lesser ranked teams, such is the reverence with which the sport is held in that part of the world. Much of that, as Fletcher explained, is to do with the Indian Premier League, which has elevated the status of cricket, from just a sporting past-time, to an entertainment behemoth valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

India will have to deal with those expectations, as will England, whose recent World Cup campaigns have been ordinary to say the least. However, they will go into this year’s tournament believing they have as good a chance as any of annexing their first World Cup.

“In the one-day game England have definitely made progress, but the big thing that they’ve got is confidence,” said Fletcher.

“They will be a threat at the World Cup. They’ve won the ICC World T20, by coming up with some initiatives that other sides didn’t introduce to the T20 game and I’m sure they’ll do that in the one-day format. England will be a good side, but they struggle on those slow wickets, because in England they don’t play on those types of wickets and it’s been a while since they toured that region. So a few of the young players might be found wanting on those sub-continent tracks.”

Paul Collingwood, who captained England to that T20 triumph last April, reckons they’re firm candidates for the final four “on current form.”

“I’d hope to put England into a semifinal. It would be hard to not put India in there. With the strength in their batting and in home conditions, they’ll be tricky to play against,” Collingwood said in an interview this week.

Collingwood, like Fletcher, also battles with who the remaining semifinalists might be.

“Australia can’t be ruled out since they have a good history in this tournament and finally I’d pick South Africa as the fourth semifinalists. But you never know I may be well off the mark,” he said.

As a way of covering his bases Fletcher even throws in Pakistan too. “Who can write them off,” he remarked.

Fletcher highlighted the importance of spin as a crucial element for success in the tournament, not only in how sides utilise their spinners, but how batsmen will look to play them.

“You’re going to have to have some fit cricketers there, because it’s going to be hot and there’s a lot of cricket and then there’s the importance of adapting to those kinds of wickets. It will be important to get their techniques right and how to play on those wickets.”

The impact of the T20 cricket will also be felt, simply in how attacking the batsmen will be.

“Players are going to be more attacking.

“But 50 overs is a lot of cricket and if sides think they can adopt a 20/20 attitude from ball one, sure they might be successful, but over a longer period they’ve got to be wary. Over 50 overs, there could be periods where you might have to be a bit more patient.”

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