With the Tour de France beginning in Mont Saint-Michel on Saturday, we look at the five most likely winners:
Chris Froome
As reigning champion and twice winner in three years, the Sky leader will be the man to beat. This Tour may favour climbers but the 31-year-old Briton has proved himself as good as anyone in that domaine, and more so than anyone else capable of performing consistently over three weeks. He also has what his team manager Dave Brailsford described as “potentially the strongest team on paper”. With two time-trials as well, Froome's all round strength will make him tough to beat, and he heads into the race in rich form having won June's Criterium du Dauphine.
Nairo Quintana
Second to Froome in both 2013 and 2015, the time has perhaps come for the 26-year-old Colombian “to step up”, as Brailsford said. The emphasis on climbing should suit Quintana, as will the concentration of tough mountain stages in the final week. Quintana, who won the 2014 Giro d'Italia, is a notoriously slow starter who comes on strong in the final week of Grand Tours. Having four consecutive tough mountain stages right at the end will give him the chance to play his favourite cards to perfection. Older, more experienced and showing increasing tactical maturity, Quintana is Froome's greatest threat.
Alberto Contador
A twice former winner and seven-time Grand Tour champion, Contador has been there and done it before. He's also beaten Froome twice in the Vuelta a Espana so he knows he can not only compete with but also beat the Brit when the gradient cranks up. But at 33, there are question marks over Contador. He first won the Tour in 2007 and many feel he is past his best having last tasted victory in 2009. His form in June's Criterium de Dauphine was not encouraging as he faded to fifth, but this is a man who won Grand Tours in three of the last four years, so he has proved his ability over three weeks numerous times. In fact, but for a doping ban that stripped him of a Tour and Giro victory, he would have won at least one Grand Tour in eight of the last nine years. Not burdened by Giro participation this time around, Contador's entire focus has been on the Tour, and as his chances of winning it are running out, he'll be eager to give it everything.
Thibaut Pinot
The 26-year-old Frenchman is considered his country's leading hope to end their miserable 31-year yellow jersey drought. Pinot finished third in 2014 and last year won a stage for the first time. He is improving year by year and has shown consistency in the build up, as he did last year. He was second at the Tour de Romandie, fourth at the Tour of the Basque Country and fifth in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he cracked badly in June's Dauphine. Last year he also cracked early on in the Tour but fought back admirably in the final week when he found his legs and repeatedly went after a stage win, before finally succeeding. Overall victory may be beyond him but another podium finish certainly isn't.
Fabio Aru
At just 25, Aru could yet prove to be even better than his fellow Italian Vincenzo Nibali. He won the Vuelta a Espana last year and was second to Contador in the Giro d'Italia. The previous year he had top five finishes in both. He has matched Nibali's feat of winning a Grand Tour at just 25. By then, though, Nibali had already raced the Tour twice, whereas this will be Aru's first crack at the Grand Boucle. This promises to be a baptism of fire for Aru and a lot more will be known about him in three weeks. But he could prove a joker in the pack and he's never shy to attack. The 'Little Angel' could provide fireworks.
A list of Tour de France winners over the last 20 years:
2015: Chris Froome (GBR)
2014: Vincenzo Nibali (ITA)
2013: Chris Froome (GBR)
2012: Bradley Wiggins (GBR)
2011: Cadel Evans (AUS)
2010: Andy Schleck (LUX) *
2009: Alberto Contador (ESP)
2008: Carlos Sastre (ESP)
2007: Alberto Contador (ESP)
2006: Oscar Pereiro (ESP) **
2005: ***
2004: ***
2003: ***
2002: ***
2001: ***
2000: ***
1999: ***
1998: Marco Pantani (ITA)
1997: Jan Ullrich (GER)
1996: Bjarne Riis (DEN)
* Schleck awarded victory after Contador stripped of win for doping
** Pereiro awarded victory after Floyd Landis stripped of win for doping
*** Lance Armstrong stripped of seven consecutive victories from 1999-2005 for doping
List of most victories:
5 - Jacques Anquetil (FRA, 1957, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964), Eddie Merckx (BEL, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974), Bernard Hinault (FRA, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1985), Miguel Indurain (ESP, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
3 - Philippe Thys (BEL, 1913, 1914, 1920), Louison Bobet (FRA, 1953, 1954, 1955), Greg LeMond (USA, 1986, 1989, 1990) – AFP