Sanzar decided a few years ago to increase the number of teams in Super Rugby and to have what is called “the finals series”, giving more teams a chance of playing in the semifinals and a possible final.
Now we have the “finals series qualifiers” – basically quarterfinals – which will allow teams finishing sixth, fifth, fourth and third to fight it out next weekend, with the winners of those matches going forward to play in the semifinals against the teams who finish first and second after this weekend’s last round of matches.
Sanzar allegedly opted for more games and giving more teams a chance of making the semi-finals with an eye on helping the Australian cause but, as things stand, with a round to go before the “quarterfinals”, only the Brumbies of the five Australian teams are likely to be involved in the play-offs. The only other team worth mentioning this year are the Reds, the defending champions, but they’re currently in seventh spot and out of the picture.
So, expanding the competition hasn’t helped Australia much, but what it has done is again prove that South Africa and New Zealand are streets ahead of the Aussies in Super Rugby.
If all goes well this weekend, South Africa will have three teams in the top six after this weekend’s matches, giving this country an excellent chance of again winning the Super Rugby title. New Zealand will have two teams involved in the last few weeks of action and Australia just the one.
The final round of fixtures get underway tomorrow morning (SA time) when New Zealand’s top team and current overall log leaders, the Chiefs, play the Hurricanes in Wellington. A win for the Chiefs will guarantee them top spot overall and give them home advantage in the semi-finals and possible final. A defeat, though, would allow the Hurricanes (in eighth position) to jump into the top six and give them a chance of playing in the “quarters” and at the same time open the door for the Stormers to snatch first place ahead of the Chiefs, should they win against the Rebels on Saturday at Newlands.
These are just some of the scenarios facing the eight teams who still have something to play for this weekend.
Besides the battle to finish one and two – to avoid having to play a “quarter-final” – the Crusaders, Bulls, Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes have to win this weekend to ensure they’re involved next week, a situation which means every one of the seven matches this weekend has plenty on the line.
“There are literally hundreds of permutations that could occur considering just three competition points separate the fourth-placed franchise in the Crusaders and the eighth-placed franchise in the Hurricanes,” said Sanzar CEO Greg Peters.
“All of the seven matches in Round 18 feature a team vying for a Super Rugby Finals Series position, and we won’t know the final make-up of the top six until the Bulls and Lions play in the final match of the regular season. Further to this, all the team’s out of contention could still have a significant role to play, with some upsets over Round 18 likely to again dramatically change the make-up of the final standings.”
Indeed, who will be the party spoilers this weekend – the Blues (who face the Brumbies), the Force (who face the Crusaders), the Waratahs (who face the Reds), the Rebels (who face the Stormers), the Cheetahs (who face the Sharks) or the Lions (who face the Bulls)?
The smart money, though, will be on the Chiefs and Stormers winning and finishing one and two and having a bye next week. The Brumbies will wrap up the Aussie Conference and finish third and host the sixth-placed team next week, probably the Sharks, in one “quarter-final”. The other “quarter-final” will probably see the Crusaders hosting the Bulls.
But with so few log points separating so many teams seeking a top six finish, making predictions is a little silly ... we’re in for one exciting ride this weekend.
P W L BP F A PD Pts
Conference leaders
Chiefs 15 12 3 2 419 329 90 63
Stormers 15 13 2 2 324 233 91 62
Brumbies 15 10 5 2 388 301 87 58
Wild cards
Crusaders 15 10 5 2 447 3191 28 56
Bulls 15 9 6 2 435 349 86 54
Sharks 15 9 6 2 402 333 69 54
Hopefuls
Reds 15 10 5 2 327 331 -4 53
Hurricanes 15 9 6 2 461 404 57 53
Also rans
Highlanders 16 9 7 1 359 385 -26 46
Cheetahs 15 5 10 2 376 424 -48 38
Waratahs 15 4 11 2 330 375 -45 35
Rebels 15 4 11 2 341 494 -153 30
Blues 15 3 12 2 329 414 -85 28
Force 15 3 12 2 282 402 -120 27
Lions 15 3 12 2 297 423 -126 25
What they need to do …
Chiefs (away to Hurricanes): Chiefs must win with a bonus point to guarantee they top the log. A win without a bonus point will not be enough if the Stormers get a bonus-point win.
Stormers (home v Rebels): To have a chance of going to the top, Stormers need a bonus-point win and the Chiefs can win without a bonus point, or the Stormers just need a simple win if the Chiefs lose.
Brumbies (home v Blues): Brumbies are virtually certain of third place. They can only be deposed if they lose without a bonus point and the Reds win with a bonus point and turn around a massive combined 91-point points difference. If the Stormers lose without a bonus point, a bonus-point win will take the Brumbies into second.
Crusaders (home v Force): A win will keep Crusaders fourth (they cannot pass the conference leaders, regardless of other results). A loss will open the door for the Crusaders to drop to anywhere down to eighth, depending on wins for Bulls, Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes and bonus points.
Bulls (home v Lions): Could end anywhere from fourth to eighth. A bonus-point win means a play-off place at least and probably fourth or fifth. A win without a bonus point opens the door for the Sharks, Reds (more wins) and Hurricanes (depending on points difference) to overtake them. Bulls play the last game and will know what they have to do when they run on.
Sharks (home v Cheetahs): Need a bonus-point win to be safe. Very similar situation to the Bulls, but a slightly worse points difference means the Sharks are more vulnerable if they do not get a bonus point, but will know all except the Bulls results when they kick off.
Reds (home v Waratahs): They are one point outside the play-offs but have more match wins. To qualify for the play-offs, the Reds need to win and the Crusaders lose (or win with a bonus point if Crusaders lose with two bonus points), or get one more match point than the Bulls or Sharks and the same or more match points than Hurricanes.
Hurricanes (home v Chiefs): Hurricanes need at least two of Crusaders, Bulls, Sharks and Reds to lose, and they need to beat the Chiefs. With a big enough bonus-point win, the Hurricanes could pip the Bulls or Sharks on points difference (if one or both win without a bonus point). The Stormers will be hoping the Hurricanes win, or at least to deny the Chiefs a bonus point.
Highlanders (bye): Will end ninth regardless of other results.
Cheetahs (away to Sharks): Could spoil the Sharks party, but cannot improve from 10th. A loss could allow Waratahs to move up a place.
Waratahs (away to Reds), Rebels (away to Stormers), Blues (away to Brumbies) and Force (away to Crusaders): All these teams could move up or down a place or two, but face tough games to end a tough season and are likely to end up in the bottom five. The lack of incentive for these teams in the final weeks is good enough reason to think of a relegation / promotion system.
Lions (away to Bulls): The Crusaders, Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes will all be hoping the former Super 10 Champions win their last match in the competition. It would be fitting if the Lions close this chapter on Super Rugby history with a victory, but they will probably bow out of the competition (barring a last-minute reprieve) with a King-sized unlucky 13th loss for the season.
Fact box
What happens if teams end up equal on points:
If two or more teams are equal on points, their ranking will be determined by the following (in order):
• Most wins
• Points difference
• Most tries
• Tries difference