The Sharks are currently sitting on 35 points in the Super rugby log with three games to play, firstly against the Lions this weekend in Johannesburg and then two matches against the Cheetahs and Sunwolves at home.
The key match for the Sharks, and in fact probably all SA franchises, is probably this weekend’s match against the side which has clearly been the top SA team in 2016, although, after a break of four weeks, form is not really a reliable method of prediction.
A win against the Lions will allow the Sharks to target finishing on 47 to 49 points depending on bonus points. Of course this is presuming victories over the Cheetahs and Sunwolves, but if they lose either of two matches then the rest is probably moot anyway.
A 47-49 point finish should be enough to give The Sharks a spot in the playoffs - although not guaranteed.
A loss for The Sharks this weekend, even with one bonus point, will leave the Sharks looking at a maximum of 46 points and then they are reliant on other results falling for them and the Bulls and Stormers would be marginal favourites to finish about the KZN franchise.
The Lions remaining two games are against the Kings and a potential banana peel against the Jaguares away. Even if they get nothing from the Sharks match, there is a good chance of the Lions having an eight- or nine-point haul from their remaining two games and that means at least a 50-point total which would see them top their conference.
Regardless of what happens, The Sharks at best have an outside chance to be top of Africa Conference 2 and need to get more points than either the Stormers or Bulls to qualify as the wildcard.
Bulls start with a tricky fixture in Argentina, but a win there and expected victories over the Sunwolves and Cheetahs will leave the Pretoria side on a minimum of 44 points – smack bang in the centre of the Sharks prediction if they lose to the Lions – up to a maximum of 47.
The Stormers, on 36 points, should be able to pretty much bank five points from their final game against the Kings, which means one victory from the Australian tour (where they play Rebels and Force) and they are sitting around 45 points, or more depending on bonus points.
In short, if the Sharks win this weekend, then Bulls and Stormers are likely to scrapping for one place in the playoffs; if the Lions win, then The Sharks slip into the dogfight which is almost certain to be decided on bonus points - or the Jaguares matches against the Bulls and Lions. - Independent Media