History tells us the Springboks will beat Australia today and end a three-match losing streak. There can be no other outcome - not when you factor in that the Boks have won all previous meetings between the teams at Loftus Versfeld and flyhalf Morne Steyn and wing Bryan Habana are still in the team to tackle the Wallabies.
The average score between the teams in Rugby Championship matches at Loftus is 36-18 in favour of the Boks. Steyn is the leading points scorer, with 158, against the Aussies and Habana is the top try-scorer against the Wallabies with nine tries.
And, let’s not forget Steyn, a veteran of 64 Tests, is back on the ground where he kicked the Bulls to so many victories and also helped the Boks register numerous wins, including kicking the match-winning penalty that secured the Boks the 2009 series against the British and Irish Lions.
Everything points to a Bok win against the Wallabies today. But, history doesn’t win Test matches and there are still a number of questions the Boks have to answer from 5pm if they’re to get up and end a miserable month of losses.
Coach Allister Coetzee’s selection of Steyn, ahead of Elton Jantjies, smacks of desperation, but then again this is exactly how the coach and Boks are probably feeling right now: desperate.
Steyn has been asked to guide the Boks today, to kick them into the right areas of the field, to manage the backs and be the calming influence in a new-look back division and, while he’s capable of doing all these things, he’s also hardly played any proper, pressure-filled rugby in months.
It’s a big ask for the veteran No 10 and you can be sure he’ll feel the pressure and weight of expectation. Steyn’s pretty much been asked to be the ‘saviour’ of Springbok rugby but he’s not likely to be considered good enough in a year’s time, not when Handre Pollard is back and Pat Lambie has had a few more games under the belt. And even once Jantjies has found his form in the Test arena.
Also today, scrumhalf Rudy Paige has to do what Faf de Klerk hasn’t done and that’s kick the Boks into good areas of the field.
He, too, will feel the heat, this being his first Test start, but what an opportunity to make the No 9 jersey his own for the foreseeable future if he produces a performance many have been hoping to see from him for years.
Then theres Pat Lambie at fullback. Coetzee has stated picking the Sharks man in the last line of defence is far from being a gamble because Lambie has played over 50 Tests; the only thing is he goes into the game having played less than 40 minutes of rugby since June, and he’s in a position he’s played in before but will hardly feel wholly comfortable in.
The Boks are a desperate lot, of that there is no doubt. They have lost three in a row and with the All Blacks up next weekend, this is their big chance to end the losing run. If they don’t win against a poor Wallabies team they could easily spiral out of control, with four away Tests coming up in Europe in November.
Imagine what state Coetzee and the Boks would be in heading overseas in a little over a month’s time for Tests against the Barbarians, England, Italy and Wales, and on the back of five straight defeats?
Coetzee’s men need to get it right today. Let’s forget who’s wearing the Bok jumpers today; every man must do his core basics well and execute properly - if they do that, then there’s no reason why the Boks shouldn’t win.
They may be a side missing several first-choice men to injury and are under stress, but man-for-man they’re a better team than the Wallabies.
Boks ... it’s time to restore some pride in the jersey.
Saturday Star