The World Cup has dictated terms to the 2015 rugby calendar and forecasting South Africa’s chances in either of the preceding Super Rugby or Rugby Championship competitions is consequently a crapshoot.
But one thing is certain – the Stormers will be better. That’s got to be a safe bet given that they can’t be much worse than they were in 2014, when they finished 11th overall.
Gert Smal took over as director of rugby at the beginning of April, and the 1-6 Stormers went on to complete their campaign with six wins in nine matches. Western Province then won the Currie Cup in Cape Town for the first time in 13 years.
The Newlands faithful will be convinced that this portends good things in 2015 and, as long as they and the Stormers continue to measure success by anything other than wins, they have reason to be optimistic.
A relatively easy tour takes in matches against the Highlanders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Western Force, while the Stormers schedule exempts them from facing the seven-time champions Crusaders or 2011 winners, the Reds.
Smal is committed to cultivating a feel-good team environment and playing an expansive game. The players will need plenty of the former to dull the pain commensurate with the latter. That won’t bother many Stormers fans, who appear to be content with losing, as long as their heroes throw the ball around and do exciting things.
Unfortunately for those fans, Duane Vermeulen may throw a spanner in the works.
With Jean de Villiers in a race against time to recover from a knee injury before the World Cup, Vermeulen is likely to take over the Stormers captaincy.
The hulking back-row brute is a shrewd tactician and a winner at heart and, as a result, he is far more inclined to play the percentages than to play the crowd.
Where De Villiers made a costly habit of putting penalties into touch on nothing more than a hunch, Vermeulen will not hesitate to point to the uprights.
This means fewer attacking lineouts for Stormers fans and more scoreboard pressure on Stormers rivals.
It is easy to argue that Vermeulen has been the Stormers’ most consistent and most valuable player over a five-season sample, and his contribution to the team is set to increase exponentially in 2015.
One of rugby’s most renowned defence coaches, Jacques Nienaber, officially parted ways with the Stormers in December.
Smal has replaced that vast archive of intellectual property with Greg Hechter and Paul Treu. Neither has any experience coaching defence at Super Rugby level and, while Hechter will be well-versed in Nienaber’s systems, singing cover tunes is not quite the same as writing your own music.
Treu is no stranger to innovation, having built the SA Sevens programme from the ground up. However, even though there is some overlap, the scheme and related skills for containing seven attackers is very different to the demands of the 15-man game.
Vermeulen will, unofficially, take a lead role in workshopping the team’s defensive plan on a weekly basis.
The last time the Stormers went to Pretoria, Juan de Jongh and Kurt Coleman scored fantastic tries as the visitors free-styled their way to a 28-12 loss against the Bulls in May. If Vermeulen is making the calls, the Stormers will avoid a repeat performance when the teams meet at Loftus Versfeld in the season-opener on Valentine’s Day.
Heyneke Meyer will be keeping a close eye on Vermeulen in that match as he ponders candidates to lead South Africa in the Rugby Championship – which kicks off on July 15 with a clash against Australia in Brisbane – and perhaps the World Cup, as a contingency for De Villiers.
The Bok coach is flush with captaincy options, including Adriaan Strauss, Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez, but his hands are tied elsewhere. Aside from the loose forward positions – where Vermeulen, Francois Louw, Willem Alberts, Schalk Burger, Siya Kolisi and Marcell Coetzee top a deep pool of quality players – the Boks are thin.
Though injuries have played a part, the fact that Meyer has question-marks in key positions is a direct result of some poor selections since 2012.
Dean Greyling, Werner Kruger, Pat Cilliers, Juandre Kruger, Jacques Potgieter and JJ Engelbrecht made their Test debuts under Meyer. None appears to be on the Bok radar for the World Cup.
Meyer missed an important opportunity to answer depth concerns on the wing when he spurned the chance to field WP finisher Seabelo Senatla during the year-end tour to Europe. Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen are world-class bookends to an unsettled backline and, with four matches to go before the World Cup, they’ve become irreplaceable. Cornal Hendricks looks the part but is a liability on defence, while Lwazi Mvovo’s pace doesn’t make up for streaky form. Senatla balances track speed with a level of physicality at the tackle point that is common to inside centres.
Habana and Pietersen’s immense value was underlined in the Cardiff Test. Without them, Willie le Roux was exposed. Despite his popularity, Le Roux is not the answer at fullback, and it’s anyone’s guess who will step up if the Cheetahs maverick breaks down.
Of even more concern is the search for De Villiers’ replacement at No 13 on defence.
The same is true at scrumhalf where Francois Hougaard and Cobus Reinach failed miserably in their attempts to replace Fourie du Preez and Ruan Pienaar.
Due to the World Cup, the four-nation southern hemisphere competition has been abbreviated to three rounds, plus a friendly (South Africa face Argentina on August 15).
As is peculiar to every fourth Rugby Championship, the success of the campaign is gauged by whether it adequately prepares each team for the World Cup.
Historically, winning the Rugby Championship is a bad omen for the World Cup – Australia won in 2011, while New Zealand finished tops in 2007, 2003 and 1999.
That’s good news for the Boks who have finished third, second and second respectively in Meyer’s three years at the helm.
The Bok coach will attempt to answer as many questions as possible during these matches before the World Cup kicks off for South Africa in Brighton on September 19.
None of Japan, Samoa, Scotland or the USA should pose a serious threat and this will afford Meyer the added bonus of a comparatively easy run-in to the quarter-finals.
From there on the Boks will be challenged, and any unresolved fault lines could result in the national disaster of an early exit from the showpiece event. - Cape Argus