It will not be a land of milk and honey

The Karoo is believed to hold one of South Africa’s solutions to the energy challenges, shale gas, a resource the government believes is needed to add to the energy mix. There is a lot of ground that needs to be covered before fracking in the area can commence, says the writer. Picture: Jason Boud/Independent Media

The Karoo is believed to hold one of South Africa’s solutions to the energy challenges, shale gas, a resource the government believes is needed to add to the energy mix. There is a lot of ground that needs to be covered before fracking in the area can commence, says the writer. Picture: Jason Boud/Independent Media

Published Dec 11, 2016

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Developing a shale gas industry in SA presents economic, technical and implementation issues, writes Bulelwa Payi.

South Africa is faced with an energy crisis and needs to diversify its energy mix urgently.

Shale gas development has been touted as one of the answers to the crisis. And the arid Karoo, believed to hold significant reserves of shale gas, has been earmarked for its exploration and development.

But establishing a shale gas industry presents complex technical and economic challenges, and implementation will require a comprehensive approach that will ensure strict compliance.

The discovery and exploitation of large shale gas reserves in countries such as the US have transformed the energy market.

In South Africa, given the recent challenges the country is facing in terms of energy supply, the possibility of exploiting shale gas deposits for power generation is of current significance.

However, the exploitation of these key energy resources might have significant social, economic or environmental impacts while presenting considerable technical challenges.

The government has to manage two major issues before the project can take off - the environmental risk to the water supply, and fix the economy by creating jobs.

International experience has highlighted the critical need to have all the necessary legislative and regulatory structures in place, and a sufficient number of regulators with the required skills before a shale gas industry is launched.

According to UCT Professor Cyril O’Connor, shale gas also presents other downstream opportunities, such as providing a key resource for the production of liquid fuels and chemicals, or enabling the development of a domestic market for gas as a cleaner energy resource.

However, considerable uncertainties exist regarding the extent of these shale gas reserves in the Karoo and the geology at depths where they are typically found.

The quantum of the shale gas is also not clear, with estimates ranging between 20 trillion cubic feet and over 400 trillion cubic feet.

There are also constraints relating to geographical regions. The area is also home to the Square Kilometre Array station (SKA) which boasts the largest network of radio telescopes ever built. Fracking is therefore not permitted.

O’Connor says ensuring that no hydraulic fracturing takes place at depths less than 1500m to protect groundwater resources will reduce the geographical area of interest.

The major argument of the anti-fracking lobbyists is that shale gas exploitation requires the use of relatively large quantities of water. In a dry area where water conservation is on the mind of each resident and drummed into visitors, this has been a serious concern. Not only is water scarce, but the Karoo relies largely on boreholes.

O’Connor says potable groundwater should not be used during fracking, and the other acceptable option would be saline water, but greater clarity is needed on the availability of this type of water.

Anti-fracking campaigners have called for baseline studies to be carried out to ascertain with greater certainty the environment at depths greater than 3km underground and to ensure there is a clear understanding of the status of the human and natural environments before any fracking commences.

The Karoo Treatment Action Group fears economic benefits of fracking have been overstated. The group has brought a court case against the government, arguing that its release of regulations was premature because it didn’t take scientific evidence into account.

A spokesman for the organisation, Jonathan Deal, said another concern was that multi-national companies had a bad track record of leaving devastation in their wake.

“It will not be a land of milk and honey,” Deal warns.

According to a recent study, Strategic Environmental Assessment For Shale Gas Development, whose results were released in November, the proposed government approach to fracking is to determine the baselines for all the critical environmental parameters in the Karoo, and then monitor these parameters on an ongoing and regular basis to detect as soon as the fracking process has a negative impact, if at all.

Although conceptually the approach is regarded as good in that it would address all the major concerns, worries have been raised. Some of the concerns many have is that the government does not have a good track record at ongoing monitoring or cracking down on those who flout the law.

O'Connor says the government will also need to create an enabling environment to encourage investment in the industry while ensuring that the state and local communities will benefit from the development of the industry.

It's also critical that there is clarity regarding the pricing structures. This is crucial when the industry begins to exploit the shale gas reserves, and requires a clearer understanding of the potential quantum of the known reserves.

O’Connor says ideally, a structure at government level should co-ordinate the awarding of licences by various government departments and have oversight of the activities of the regulators.

Amid all these concerns, South Africa needs to create jobs or face growing discontent over the rising unemployment rate.

Job opportunities in the Karoo are scarce, and most locals work on surrounding farms, in hospitality and retail businesses.

But O’Connor says the country has a serious shortage of the high-level skills required to implement the shale gas industry. However, each phase of the project will require a different set of skills.

The exploration phase requires a small team of people to drill holes and conduct seismic testing. These teams will need experts like geologists, geophysicists as well as people to operate the drill rig and other equipment. They would probably be brought in from international countries where fracking has been explored.

It is only if the project gets to the development and production phases that jobs would be created at a large scale.

It is also argued that the hospitality sector is likely to see growth, and so is the manufacturing sector since the special concrete needed to line the wells and the special steel tubing used in the well construction are not available in the country and would be an opportunity for cement and steel producers.

It's clear that a lot of ground has to be covered before the project takes off. South Africa has an opportunity to do the project safely and securely for the benefit of everyone.

Deal says his group will stand aside and let the project go ahead only when there is credible evidence that the government can manage and monitor the project process.

* The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.

The Sunday Independent

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