Kuseni Dlamini writes that the battle to succeed president Zuma will make the Mbeki/Zuma battle in Polokwane like a Sunday school picnic.
This week’s widely expected pronouncement by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) that it would support and lobby for Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa to replace President Jacob Zuma as ANC president in December 2017, and ultimately the country in 2019, is a clear and significant indication that the jostling for succession is inescapably under way.
Luthuli House has tried very hard - but in vain - to discourage the key players within the Tripartite Alliance from prematurely opening the succession debate.
The 2017 succession debate and jostling is very likely to be more divisive and challenging than hitherto.
Why? I hear you ask.
Because this year’s August 3 municipal elections saw the ANC lose a massive amount of ground and face a humiliation that has left it bruised and, to some extent, confused. There is still a lot of unhelpful finger-pointing at play within the Tripartite Alliance, instead of going back to the basics of mass mobilisation through a unified political strategy and a sustained campaign to regain the ground that was lost at the next general elections in 2019.
The ANC still remains, by far, the dominant political force in the country with a political footprint and vast organisational machinery and a brand equity that is second to none.
But the party can be its own worst enemy and squander the goodwill and public confidence it has enjoyed during its 104 years of existence.
That is why next year’s electoral conference will be a crucial time that will determine whether the ANC is serious about rebuilding itself by reconnecting and re-engaging with South Africa to regain lost ground.
The role of leadership in that process cannot be overemphasised and it’s why the stakes are very high indeed - not just for the presidential hopefuls but also for the ANC as a governing party and aspiring leader of society through a very strong and unassailable hegemonic position.
Now that Cosatu has made its views officially known, the key question is: which structure or province is next in line to add its voice by making its choice known?
Time will tell.
And we will know soon as the jostling is now on.
The ANC Women’s League (ANCWL) and the ANC Youth League have been very outspoken in their preferences for a female successor to President Zuma, which effectively means they won’t support Ramaphosa.
Cosatu’s pronouncement has drawn the line in the sand by making it explicitly clear that the union federation does not buy the argument for a female president.
This is significant, coming from a federation that has always taken pride in projecting itself as a champion of gender equality in the workplace and beyond.
It came on the back of various declarations of support for Ramaphosa by different unions within Cosatu, which were seen as pre-emptive strikes to seal the ultimate Cosatu position on this very divisive and polarising matter within the Tripartite Alliance.
Cosatu’s pronouncement is viewed in some quarters as victory for the so-called anti-Zuma camp within the alliance.
But some Cosatu unions did not come out in support of Ramaphosa, which may be indicative of the divisions that are at play in most structures within the alliance at national, provincial and local levels.
These divisions are still likely to play out in ugly ways as the jostling intensifies and the top leadership gets caught up in them because of their vested competing and conflicting personal and political interests and agendas.
This is the time when effective and unifying leadership is needed more than ever before.
It requires selflessness and the political and personal commitment to strengthening the party and the country at large.
An orderly and disciplined succession debate and accomp-anying process are key to the stability that is required to under-pin a stable, productive and growing economy and society.
Contestation is part of the fabric of a robust and dynamic democracy but it must be conducted within the framework of the acceptable rules of the democratic project.
Cosatu’s support for Ramaphosa is largely premised on his back-ground as a trade unionist and as a perceived unifying figure in an increasingly polarised ANC.
Ramaphosa’s detractors within and beyond the Tripartite Alliance have raised the Marikana and buffalo issues. They will continue to do so.
Cosatu’s support for Ramaphosa is viewed as a victory for the so- called anti-Zuma camp because the so-called Zuma camp is widely perceived to be rallying around African Union (AU) Commission chairperson Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, whose term at the AU is due to end soon.
Those supportive of Dlamini-Zuma cite her impeccable track record as one of the longest-serving and most effective cabinet ministers in post-apartheid South Africa, and the excellent work she has done in turning around the administrative apparatus of the AU and, more importantly, in driving and ulti-mately delivering “Vision 2063 - The Africa We Want”.
Dlamini-Zuma is credited with formulating the first-ever unifying vision for the African continent and for weathering storms of resistance from certain sections of the Franco-phone African community and other anti-South African elements on the continent and elsewhere in parts of the Western world.
Critics of Dlamini-Zuma cite the fact that she is a former wife of President Jacob Zuma.
The pronouncement by Cosatu on the eve of the ANC’s National Executive Committee this weekend is a clear sign that the political noise of recent times is likely to get louder and more toxic as the country edges closer to December 2017.
These are exciting and challeng-ing times indeed.
These are also times of immense opportunity for renewal and change that open up the space to consolidate, deepen and advance the democratic project.
The responsibility for all leaders is to put the interests of the country’s economy and society above factional and personal inter-ests and agendas.
The country is destined to witness an unprecedented succes-sion battle that will make the 2007 Polokwane locking of horns between then-president Thabo Mbeki and current South African President Zuma look like a Sunday school picnic.
The best end result of the succession debate would be an outcome that somehow manages to unite the ANC and the country alike in a tangible sense of common purpose to make this country a great and admired nation - as indeed it can and must be.
* Dlamini is a member of the National Council of SA Institute of International Affairs.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
The Sunday Independent