The leaking of the letter warning Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to respond to the Hawks “or else” would seem to have been deliberate, says Craig Dodds.
Parliament - There was a clue to how this week would go last Sunday, when a letter warning Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to respond to the Hawks, “or else”, found its way into the public domain.
The minister had only just set foot back in the country after a week abroad, trying to persuade foreign holders of this country’s debt that their money was still safe.
While he was away, ratings agency Moody’s announced it would visit this week to find out for itself if this was true.
So the Hawks could not have picked a more delicate moment to fire the next salvo in their showdown with the minister.
The leaking of the letter would seem to have been deliberate and intended to have precisely the effect it did have – to rattle the markets and nudge the country one step closer to a downgrade.
The question is why anyone would want to do this, when so much is at stake.
One place to begin the search for answers would be those sectors of the economy that benefit from a weaker currency.
Some mining interests like gold, for example, have become suddenly profitable as a result of the plunging rand.
But Gordhan and his efforts to rescue the economy appear to be the specific target, as though he is being set up to fail.
If he did, and the economy went down the toilet despite all the energy that has been poured into turning around the perception of risk resulting from the inexplicable shuffling of finance ministers in December, that would confirm the narrative that nothing this country does will satisfy the whims of a capricious market.
The turmoil that flowed from the finance minister fiasco, like the misery that would follow a ratings downgrade, could be explained as punishment of a country that tries to exercise its sovereignty by taking “well-considered” decisions, as President Jacob Zuma put it in Parliament this week, like installing a relative novice as finance minister.
As it happens, this ties in neatly with another narrative that has gained currency this week, that the economy remains controlled by certain white capitalists and those who argue the government should behave in a way that keeps the markets happy are simply serving their interests.
That there is an element of truth to this argument does the cause no harm.
What the leaking of the Hawks letter suggested, then, is that the interests behind it are quite willing to adopt a scorched-earth strategy in their battle for control of the ANC.
Which also suggests, regardless of the outcome of this weekend’s meeting of the governing party’s national executive committee, that this is a fight to the death.
Seemingly, there is too much at stake for either side to contemplate defeat, or even compromise.
Nor is it likely to have been entirely coincidental that Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas dropped his bombshell days before the NEC meeting.
He would have consulted before going public, and that he received a threatening SMS shortly before doing so tells us that word got out.
Those two events – the Hawks letter on the one hand and Jonas’s revelation on the other – were the first shots in a week that rapidly escalated into open warfare, with the SACP seeking to pre-empt the removal of Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies by warning of “another Gupta-inspired cabinet reshuffle” and the ANC Youth and Military Veterans leagues taking aim at Jonas.
More skeletons came tumbling out the closet relating to the Gupta family’s alleged capture of the state.
Not even looming local government elections could persuade the warring factions to sheathe their weapons, though they may yet be forced into a temporary truce.
For those who support Gordhan’s efforts to right the economic ship a few concessions would probably suffice.
The attacks on him would have to cease and he would have to be given control of Sars, with or without Commissioner Tom Moyane in place.
The Guptas are a thornier matter, which is probably why the SACP has called for a commission of inquiry into the issue of state capture in general.
Zuma could agree to this without appearing to give credence to the allegations that his closeness to the family is the root of the problem.
It would buy the ANC time to focus on the elections instead of its internal battle.
But that would require both sides to suspend hostilities. The scorched-earth strategy that saw one side openly courting a ratings downgrade on the eve of the Moody’s visit suggests they may have passed the point of no return.
Political Bureau