South African diplomats are fully aware of the dangers of the cold war between Riyadh and Tehran turning hot, writes Peter Fabricius.
The rising tension between the Middle East’s two superpowers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, are adding even more volatility to an already explosive region.
Temperatures rose dramatically last year with the intervention of both of them on opposite sides of what was at least partly a proxy war between them in Yemen.
And they rose even higher this month with the pillaging of the Saudi embassy in Tehran after Riyadh executed the cleric Nimr al-Nimr, a non-violent activist for Saudi Arabia’s oppressed Shi’a minority. Saudi Arabia retaliated by severing diplomatic ties with Iran and a host of other Sunni Arab countries followed suit.
Both are fairly aggressive countries and each sees itself as the champion of one of the sharply divided Islamic sects, Saudi Arabia for the Sunnis and Iran for the Shi’a.
The deal which the five permanent members of the US Security Council and Germany (P5+1) concluded last year to lift sanctions against Iran in exchange for it disabling its nuclear weapons programme has rattled Riyadh.
Like many other Sunni Arab states, Israel and US Republicans, Saudi Arabia fears the P5+1 powers have been hoodwinked by Tehran and that the deal has given it a freer hand not only to continue developing nuclear weapons more clandestinely but also to pursue its other hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East, including through sponsoring proxies in other countries.
The deal has heightened the feeling of isolation in Riyadh, the fear that it is being abandoned by its powerful ally, the US. America’s development of its major natural gas reserves has greatly reduced its dependence on Saudi oil and therefore its support for Riyadh.
The drop in the global oil price is also jeopardising the paternalistic relationship the Saudi royal family has with its people, forcing it to cut back on generous subsidies of petrol and other prices that kept the people sweet.
Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are also being aggravated by internal instability in the ruling Saud family. King Salman, who assumed the throne last year, is reported to be cutting many of his wider family out of power and patronage, focusing it instead on his closest kin.
Analysts see Saudi Arabia’s aggressive and very expensive military intervention in neighbouring Yemen to oppose the Iran-backed Houthi putschists and the mass execution of Al-Nimr and 46 other dissidents this month, as signs that Salman is losing his grip.
The lifting of Western oil sanctions on Iran in reward for the nuclear deal has also rattled Saudi Arabia. It will pour another 500 000 barrels of crude a day into the oil markets, ensuring that already-depressed prices stay low.
Some Western countries are curious to know if South Africa has any role to play in defusing the tensions between the two major Middle East powers.
Pretoria has good relations with both, though clearly it favours Iran because it is also in the Non-Aligned Movement camp while Saudi Arabia is viewed as a US client state.
South African diplomats, of course, are fully aware of the dangers of the cold war between Riyadh and Tehran turning hot.
And they say they will use whatever influence they have to talk both sides down from confrontation.
Pretoria’s special envoys in the Middle East, former deputy foreign minister Aziz Pahad and former ambassador to the UK Zola Skweyiya, are expected to visit both Riyadh and Tehran on their next mission to the region soon.
But Pretoria also acknowledges that its influence is minimal and that this is a moment for the big powers, the US and its Western allies, China, Russia and others to put their heads together to calm the rivals.
Perhaps the best Pretoria can do is to use the lifting of the oil sanctions against Iran to express its views, if only symbolically.
Before the sanctions South Africa was importing most of its oil from Iran. After the sanctions, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria largely filled the gap. By 2013 Saudi Arabia was supplying 53 percent of our oil and Nigeria almost all of the rest. Pretoria tried to make a virtue of this necessity, saying it was pleased to be able to buy more oil from an African country.
The South African oil industry believes that South Africa will now return to its previous sales patterns, substantially reducing purchases from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
If it really believes oil purchases are an expression of political intent, perhaps Pretoria will ensure that the country buys equal shares from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Nigeria.
That’s probably about as much as it can do, unfortunately.
Sunday Independent