Jacoline Prinsloo

NOT THIS TIME: Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (right) wasnt elected chairwoman of the AU in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, yesterday. Picture: Jacoline Prinsloo

Paul Fauvet and Peter Fabricius

Independent Foreign Service

Home Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma yesterday failed in her bid to become the chairwoman of the AU Commission. But SA claimed it had scored a victory in Addis Ababa by also knocking the incumbent, Gabon’s Jean Ping, out of his chair.

The heads of state summit of the AU failed to elect anyone to head the commission, the organisation’s secretarial and executive body.

At a closed-door session, neither Dlamini-Zuma nor Ping was able to secure the required two-thirds majority. As there are 53 AU member states in good standing, a candidate needed at least 36 votes to win.

This is the story behind the election.

Who were the candidates?

The incumbent, Gabon’s Jean Ping, and Home Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Why did Africa’s leaders fail to elect either of them as chairperson of the AU Commission?

Under the AU rules, the winner must get two-thirds of votes of the continent's governments.

Who did better?

The ballot is secret

Who voted for whom?

As the ballot is secret, it’s hard to say. The West African regional organisation Ecowas was di- vided because it could not agree to back Ping unanimously.

What were the issues?

SA said it wanted a more effective AU Commission and one that was more assertive of African interests against outsiders meddling in the continent. Dlamini-Zuma also promised that, as the first woman in the job if she won, she would push women’s rights more strongly.

Would she have succeeded in keeping her campaign promises?

Most of them, probably. She has proved the most efficient home affairs minister to date and has tightened up a badly run department. She would also have stood up to the West more.

What was SA’s reaction to the outcome?

Minister of International Relations and Co-operation Maite Nkoana-Mashabane put a brave face on it, emphasising that SA had dislodged Ping, rather than that Dlamini-Zuma had been defeated. Other SA officials put it more bluntly, claiming the election as a victory because they had got rid of Ping, “a pawn of the West”.

Was this reaction credible?

Not exactly. It’ s probably true that SA did want to get rid of Ping and did feel that the AU Commission was too weak in opposing Western powers’ involvement in the Ivory Coast and Libyan crises. However, the election was undoubtedly a slap in the face for SA, given all the effort it put into the campaign, though it might get a second chance.

What happens next?

It is not absolutely clear as the summit continues. Ping will stay in his present position until July until next elections are held at the next AU summit in Lilongwe, Malawi, in June/July.

Who will contest that election?

The AU will probably call for new candidates.

Will Dlamini-Zuma and Ping be allowed to stand again?

This is not absolutely certain, but it seems the rules do not preclude it. Most observers believe that Ping will not run again as his failure to win two-thirds even when unopposed in the fourth round yesterday was a vote of no-confidence in him. Nkoana-Mashabane said yesterday that SA would back Dlamini-Zuma for another run if SADC chose her as its candidate again.

Is this likely?

Probably. SA commands strong support in SADC, and since Nkoana-Mashabane has made clear SA wants Dlamini-Zuma to run again, SADC is unlikely to oppose her.

Would she win if she was allowed to run again?

It is very hard to say. Getting Ping out of the way may not be enough. It is possible that his backers will find a stronger candidate and that the next election could be just as divided and bitter.