LOS ANGELES - The Oscar best-picture race has turned into a nail-biter.
"Boyhood," the coming-of-age tale filmed over 12 years, was until a fortnight ago the strong favorite to win the industry's top prize. That was before "Birdman" threw open the race by winning Hollywood's guild awards. With Oscar voting ending Tuesday and the other awards out of the way, the contest is the closest in almost a decade, according to bookmakers.
Indicators that have proven reliable in the past are pointing in opposite directions. The winner of the top honor from the Producers Guild of America has gone on to capture the Academy Award for best picture in each of the past seven years. This year that honor went to "Birdman." The British Academy of Film & Television Arts, which hands out the Baftas, is on a six- year streak. It went for "Boyhood."
"We have all the tea leaves, but the problem is they contradict," said Tom O'Neil, founder of GoldDerby.com, a website that tracks the awards race and calculates the odds based on reader and journalist votes. His site puts the two films in a dead heat at 6 to 5 each.
The race for the Oscars, which will be handed out in an ABC telecast on February 22, starts in earnest after the Toronto Film Festival in September. Studios release their prestige films late in the year, and a cottage industry springs up to direct multimillion-dollar marketing campaigns, guided in their decisions by statistics on which films will do well.
"Boyhood" started strong and became the movie to beat. The film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2014. Released by IFC Films, part of AMC Networks Inc., the movie follows a 6-year-old boy as he grows into adolescence. It was filmed by director Richard Linklater, who gathered the same cast once a year for 12 years and won plaudits for his unique approach.
The picture won best drama at the Golden Globe Awards, and as recently as Jan. 23 was the prohibitive favorite, with a 78 percent chance of winning the Oscar for best picture, according to GoldDerby. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette are up for awards for their supporting roles, and the film is also nominated for original screenplay, film editing and directing, or a total of six nominations.
"Birdman," from the Fox Searchlight unit of 21st Century Fox, stars Michael Keaton as a washed-up actor who once played a superhero, trying to revive his career with a Broadway play. Like Linklater, director Alejandro González Iñárritu took a unique approach — he filmed the movie using extended scenes, rarely cutting away.
The movie was a longshot at the start of the year — Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker, had the odds at 12 to 1, while "Boyhood" was 1 to 10. On Oscar night, Keaton, Edward Norton and Emma Stone are up for their roles, and the film is also nominated for cinematography, directing, sound editing, sound mixing and original screenplay, a total of nine nominations.
At the Producers Guild Awards on Jan. 24, "Birdman" won the top prize. The next day the Screen Actors Guild did the same. The odds for "Birdman" started to shorten as it drew a flood of bets, said Feilim Mac An Iomaire, a spokesman for Paddy Power.
Then on Feb. 7, Iñárritu received the top award from the Directors Guild of America, and "Birdman" overtook "Boyhood" in the odds.
"It's a bit of a horse race," said Matt Atchity, editor- in-chief of review aggregator Rottentomatoes.com. "If your horse breaks too fast, it can run out of steam."
As of Feb. 16, William Hill had "Birdman" at 8 to 13 and "Boyhood" 5 to 4. Paddy Power has "Birdman" at 8 to 13 and "Boyhood" at 6 to 5.
That's the closest since the 2006 ceremony, when "Brokeback Mountain" and "Crash" vied for prize, according to the bookmakers.
Like "The Artist," which won best picture in 2012 for its tale of a fading silent film star as talkies emerged, the story of artistic struggle in "Birdman" is likely to resonate more among Academy members, according to Atchity.
A total of eight films are nominated for best picture. The others are "American Sniper," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "The Imitation Game," "Selma," "The Theory of Everything" and "Whiplash."
Paddy Power has "The Imitation Game" as the next favorite at 35 to 1, with "American Sniper," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and "The Theory of Everything" at 40 to 1.
Oscar pundits weigh a slew of statistics to guide their predictions. The guilds are important because their members make up the different branches of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences that nominate for each category, such as best actor and best director.
About 500 members of the British academy are also members of the U.S. organization, making the British group an important barometer of industry sentiment, according to O'Neil.
That's making 2015 "the scariest year to be an Oscar prognosticator," O'Neil said. -
WASHINGTON POST-BLOOMBERG