The shrinking budget pie

Vestact analyst Sasha Naryshkine.

Vestact analyst Sasha Naryshkine.

Published Oct 22, 2015

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There was plenty of action happening away from the markets on Wednesday, most especially at the Parliament buildings in Cape Town, where antics from the EFF were becoming more predictable than Hashim Amla.

Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene put on a brave face and delivered a mid-term budget speech that was tougher than any before.

Outside, on the street, the police used heavy handed tactics to move students away; the students wanted to be heard, their grievances to be acknowledged by seemingly unsympathetic politicians. It is not for us to try and decide what is or isn't the right way.

The only question to ask is, as the pie is only so big, where do the students propose raising the necessary funds to make education more affordable? Or where do they propose taking the money from?

UNISA fee structure looks more affordable than many other universities, plus you can earn work experience at the same time. Why not have more students here, ensuring that the model is much more scalable than any other, learning via correspondence? Pumping resources into regional studying centres to provide correspondence students with the necessary support? Sounds like a great stop gap measure.

From my very quick look at the fees of UNISA and fees of the University of Witwatersrand, is it not a better option? Plus, part time jobs, student jobs can easily pay for the tuition and have some extra left over. These institutions are underfunded as it is, government is stretched and does not have the resources, that was quite clear in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement delivered by Nene on Wednesday.

Less options

A slowdown in economic activity equals lower tax collections. Which equals less options and not more. The minister was clear: "Without economic growth, revenue will not increase. Without revenue growth, expenditure cannot increase."

Debt has piled up, government debt as a percentage to gross domestic product is now 47 percent, having doubled since 2008. And that, of course, does not include state owned enterprises. There are many different methods to reduce debt, the first and most important in the long run, is to increase economic activity to levels that mean collections rise and GDP rises at a much faster rate than debt.

To continue to meet our social obligations - there are 16.7 million recipients of government grants in South Africa - in the long run I am very sure all of these people receiving grants would love to be earning a whole lot more than currently.

The only way that is going to happen is growing economic activity. Be more friendly to business and strange things start to happen. The best example that still exists for me is North and South Korea.

You know the story, the one is rich, the one is dead poor and has an overreaching government and no civil liberties. And they both had the same starting point. All I am saying is that some economic models work, some don't. That ultimately is for the people to decide.

Sasha Naryshkine is an analyst at Vestact. Follow him on Twitter @SashaNaryshkine.

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