Oil price ends rouble's 6-day rise

File picture: Alex Grimm

File picture: Alex Grimm

Published Nov 25, 2014

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London - The rouble snapped a six-day winning streak on Tuesday as prospects of an oil price recovery waned, while another oil-linked currency, the Nigerian naira, also fell, ahead of a possible central bank monetary tightening.

Oil prices eased below $80 (R882) a barrel as expectations waned that the OPEC cartel would agree a significant production cut to support the market.

The rouble has recovered almost 10 percent against the dollar since early November, but fell 0.6 percent despite upbeat comments from S&P, which said Russia's credit rating was safe, even if it entered recession.

Analysts said the rouble would stay volatile due to the uncertain oil outlook.

“Russia rebounded pretty strongly and a lot of it was to do with the OPEC meeting. At this point, an OPEC production cut is largely priced in and, unless something materially changes, the market has to take a breather,” said Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Ilan Solot.

Russian dollar-denominated stocks fell 1.7 percent while rouble stocks lost 0.5 percent.

Emerging equities fell 0.4 percent off three-week highs while in Asia, mainland Chinese shares closed 1.4 percent higher after the central bank lowered a key short-term money rate.

Nigeria's naira fell 1.6 percent before a central bank meeting that some reckon may provide some policy support the currency.

HSBC analysts predicted a 50 bps rate rise or higher reserve ratios on bank deposits along with continued intervention.

Also in Africa, Kenya's shilling fell to new three-year lows, fuelling speculation that the central bank would intervene.

In central Europe, Hungary's forint slipped 0.2 percent to a one-week low against the euro as expectations grew that the central bank will flag a policy easing in coming months while leaving interest rates unchanged in the short term.

In debt news, Pakistan opened the books on a five-year dollar sukuk and Ethiopia started investor meetings for a debut Eurobond.

Ukrainian dollar bonds stabilised after Monday's steep falls due to continued fighting in the east of the country and news that agricultural producer Agroton had asked to restructure debt. - Reuters

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