On paper, South Africa’s long-term energy plans look solid, with coal, nuclear, gas and renewables all viable options. But none are likely to prevent potentially crippling power crunches unless a decision is made soon on when and how to add capacity to the grid.
South Africa’s failure to invest in new power plants nearly two decades ago meant it paid dearly in 2008 when the grid nearly collapsed. Eskom is scrambling to finish new power stations, including massive coal-fired Medupi and Kusile with a combined capacity of 9 500 megawatts. But they are still years from completion, and in the interim Eskom will battle to keep the lights on.
The utility has declared four power “emergencies” since November last year and imposed rolling blackouts this month for the first time in six years.
Although they lasted only a day, Eskom warned that the worst was not over. It has a total generation capacity of 42 000MW, which is slightly less than Turkey but almost 10 times more than Nigeria.
Although South Africa’s infrastructure is generally the envy of Africa, currently nearly a quarter of its generation capacity is out of action, mainly for maintenance.
The first power from Medupi, about 800MW, is expected in the second half of this year. Eskom admitted this would not prevent more blackouts should the system come under further strain.
Any event leading to a loss of more than 1 500MW could have a significant impact on the grid, Eskom said.
Eskom chief executive Brian Dames said South Africa was still feeling the repercussions of the government’s decision not to build new plants when asked by the utility to do so in 1998. Construction of Medupi only began in 2007 and has been plagued by delays.
“It will take 10 years to fix the 1998 problem,” said Dames, who steps down this month.
In its 20-year Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), running up to 2030, the government says coal, nuclear, hydro, shale gas and renewable energy are all options to boost power supply.
The government realises it could pay a heavy price if it does not decide in time on the next phase of power construction when Medupi and Kusile are complete.
“We are working around the clock to arrive at decisions quickly,” Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba said.
The IRP is revised every two years, the latest revision being last year. The cabinet has yet to approve the updated plan, which proposes a delay in building more nuclear power plants and a focus instead on coal, hydro and gas.
Eskom’s problems are compounded by increasing maintenance needs at its decades-old plants, and unplanned outages.
It also faces challenges with the quality of coal fed into its power stations. The recent blackouts were imposed after heavy rain soaked coal stockpiles and the coal could not be fed properly into the system.
To diversify its energy sources and reduce its reliance on coal, South Africa started three years ago to procure renewable power from independent producers.
To date, the government has signed off on 64 renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 3 850MW. Eskom said 19 projects had been connected to the grid to date.
Analysts say more must be done to allow private players in.
“The industry is by far not deregulated enough. We need to have more participants in base-load generation in South Africa,” Frost & Sullivan energy analyst Cornelis van der Waal said. “Whether that base load is coal, nuclear, gas or hydro, let’s leave that to the industry to decide who can supply the most reliable electricity at the best rate.” – Reuters