Johannesburg - The intervention by Ngoako Ramatlhodi, the Minister of Mineral Resources, paved the way for more “unsavoury outcomes and a new phase” in the platinum-belt strike, Peter Attard Montalto, a researcher at Nomura, said yesterday.
Employers could not fire the workers and would need lengthy consultations with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) before doing so, he said.
Attard Montalto expected that the mines would announce the mothballing of shafts and restructuring.
Ramatlhodi on Tuesday also hinted that mass retrenchments and shafts closures were inevitable the longer the platinum-belt strike continued.
Should the restructuring be too aggressive, the government was likely to threaten mines with fines, Attard Montalto said.
Ramatlhodi’s spokesman, Mahlodi Muofhe, was not available for comment at the time of print yesterday.
Amcu’s discussions with mine bosses over restructuring would likely take between two to three months.
“Eventual restructuring occurs with a very high risk of violence between those workers who have chosen to stay and those who are fired,” said Attard Montalto.
About 70 000 members of Amcu, the recognised majority union in the platinum belt, went on strike for a R12 500 basic wage demand on January 23 that has cost the industry R21 billion in revenue.
Impala Platinum, Lonmin and Anglo American Platinum latest revised offer was R12 500 cash for entry-level underground employees by July 2017, which has been rejected.
Ramatlhodi withdrew from the negotiation process after Amcu and the employers failed to meet his Monday deadline for both parties to end the five-month deadlock.
Attard Montalto believed that the next stage of the process would include further talks at the Labour Court with no movement by either side or a resolution.
The mediation at the Labour Court facilitated by Judge Hilary Rubkin-Naiker was suspended while the minister intervened.
Attard Montalto did not believe that either side had shifted since the strike started on January 23.
Ramatlhodi walked away from the talks after two weeks.
Attard Montalto believed there was little that he could have done, given the state of labour relations and with mining laws that would not upset the delicate balance on such issues within the ANC.
Over the weekend, the ANC announced that the strike had become political and was being driven by white foreign forces. ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe accused foreign nationals of attempts to destabilise the economy.
“What this suggests to us is that the government does not want to risk wider labour unrest because it is unwilling to be seen to be taking more significant action to find a resolution through legal changes.
“That would then risk the use of the police or army for stability so it links back to the Marikana tragedy,” Attard Montalto added.