Rene Vollgraaff
THE trade balance shifted back into surplus in March as exports of precious metals and electronics climbed.
The trade surplus of R482 million compared with a revised R8.7 billion deficit in February, the Pretoria-based Revenue Service said last week.
The median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a shortfall of R6.5bn.
The deficit for the first three months of the year was R32.6bn compared with R27.2bn in 2014.
Power utility Eskom is rationing electricity supply because its ageing plants cannot meet demand.
The scheduled blackouts or load shedding, will harm growth prospects in Africa’s most-industrialised economy, according to the World Bank.
The effect of power cuts “was not as severe on mining and manufacturing as we had suspected”, Isaac Matshego, an economist at Nedbank Group, said last week.
“We will be watching the number very closely in April and May because in April is when load-shedding became more severe.”
A positive trade balance may relieve pressure on the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, and the rand.
The current-account gap averaged 5.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2014 and will narrow to 4.5 percent this year, according to the National Treasury.
Rand Positive
The rand initially pared losses after the trade figures were released before depreciating following data showing US jobless claims fell to the lowest level in 15 years.
The currency was trading 1 percent weaker at 11.9087 per dollar in the afternoon.
Yields on government bonds due December 2026 rose two basis points to 7.96 percent.
“If exports are rebounding, that will be positive for the rand,” Matshego said.
Exports jumped 19 percent to R91.3bn in March as shipments of precious metals and stones surged R4.7bn, or 38 percent, and sales of machinery and electronics increased by 25 percent.
Imports rose 6.5 percent as purchases of vehicles jumped R2.5bn, or 29 percent.
Machinery and electronics purchases increased 11 percent, while shipments of vegetable products dropped 41 percent.
The monthly trade figures are often volatile, reflecting the timing of shipments of commodities. – Bloomberg