Who replaces Marcus at the SARB?

Cape Town. 100219. South Africa is coming out of its first recession in almost two decades reasonably rapidly, says Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus. Marcus also said monetary policy remains directed towards containing inflation. The central bank has cut rates by 500 basis points since December 2008, and left the repo rate flat at 7,0% at its last four meetings. Picture Mxolisi Madela

Cape Town. 100219. South Africa is coming out of its first recession in almost two decades reasonably rapidly, says Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus. Marcus also said monetary policy remains directed towards containing inflation. The central bank has cut rates by 500 basis points since December 2008, and left the repo rate flat at 7,0% at its last four meetings. Picture Mxolisi Madela

Published Sep 18, 2014

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Johannesburg - South African Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus will step down at the end of her term on November 8 after guiding Africa's most advanced economy through five years of post-financial crisis turbulence.

The rand fell to 11.1095 against the dollar, its lowest since February.

Marcus said President Jacob Zuma would be able to draw on a “strong talent pool” in the bank, suggesting she would prefer an internal replacement.

Following are analyst comments about possible replacements for the respected Marcus:

MANDLA MALEKA, TREASURY ECONOMIST, ESKOM

“She mentioned that the committee has got some strong candidates. If anything, a candidate to take over from her will be from the three current deputy governors.

“I have got the feeling - though not very strong - that it may be Lesetja (Kganyago) considering that he may have some political clout as compared to Daniel (Mminele).

“Both of them are equally capable but what will stand Lesetja in good stead is he was once the fiscal manager of the country.”

 

RAZIA KHAN, HEAD OF AFRICA RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED:

“What happens next will very much depend on the successor that is announced.

“In previous instances, both with Governor Mboweni and Governor Marcus, a successor was announced some time before the term of the sitting Governor was due to end.

“That there has been no announcement yet raises the likelihood that a successor will emerge from within the SARB, although it is not necessarily a given.

“For markets, this might be the more rand-friendly response. As much as the independence of the institution - enshrined by South Africa's constitution - is well-recognised, this would still be the more benign outcome.”

 

PETER ATTARD-MONTALTO, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIST, NOMURA:

“I'm gutted. It's a very sad day. And she is going for a range of reasons to do with politics, race etc.

“If it is Lesetja it will be policy continuity and a 'non-event'.

The other alternative is Daniel, who would be similar but does not have the same political ties.

“Someone external would be a risk. She has very big shoes to fill in the depth of analysis and clarity she has brought to the MPC statements.”

 

HUGO PIENAAR, BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH:

“There are very capable people on that MPC, people like Lesetja, who of course has a Treasury background as a former director-general there. And Daniel Mminele has been at the Reserve Bank for a very long period.

“They are suitable candidates within the Bank to step into the Governor's boots.” - Reuters

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