Johannesburg - India, the world’s largest democracy, is about to tip the global population scales as the UN’s latest population estimates show that the country is poised to surpass China by 2022 in population size.
The shift, when it occurs, will be seismic as it will entail geopolitical, economic and social implications for the world. In a report released yesterday, entitled “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision”, the UN forecast the world’s population to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 from the current 7.3 billion.
The UN did not expect any let up in population growth beyond 2030. It forecasts the world’s population to keep climbing, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Population growth is a hot-button issue as it presents governments and policymakers with the challenge of how to deal with competition for food, shelter and other resources.
“Understanding the demographic changes that are likely to unfold over the coming years, as well as the challenges and opportunities that they present for achieving sustainable development, is key to the design and implementation of the new development agenda,” Wu Hongbo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said.
Africa was expected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050, thanks to the continent’s highest rate of population growth.
During this period, the populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double, and by 2100, 10 African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia.
“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries presents its own set of challenges, making it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrolment and health systems, all of which are crucial to the success of the new sustainable development agenda,” John Wilmoth, the director of the population division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said in a statement accompanying the release of the estimates.
The UN said most of the projected increase in the world’s population could be attributed to a short list of high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, or countries with already large populations.
During 2015-2050, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, United Republic of Tanzania, the US, Indonesia and Uganda (listed according to the size of their contribution to total growth).
Youthful Africa
China and India remain the two largest countries in the world, each with more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 percent of the world’s population, respectively. But by 2022, the population of India was expected to surpass that of China, the report said.
The demographic dividend of having a youthful population has been cited as one of Africa’s most enduring attractions to investors, provided that economic growth rates continue to lift many more people out of poverty and boost the ranks of the middle class.
So, while there was some degree of uncertainty surrounding any projection, the large number of young people in Africa, who would reach adulthood in the coming years and start having children of their own, ensured that the region would play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades, the UN said.
In Africa, children under the age 15 account for 41 percent of the population in 2015 and young persons aged 15 to 24 account for a further 19 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia, which have seen greater declines in fertility, have smaller percentages of children (26 and 24 percent, respectively) and similar percentages of youth (17 and 16 percent, respectively).
In total, these three regions are home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young persons.
“These children and young people are future workers and parents, who can help to build a brighter future for their countries,” the UN said. “Providing them with health care, education and employment opportunities, particularly in the poorest countries and groups, will be a critical focus of the new sustainable development agenda,” it added.
Among the 10 largest countries in the world, one is in Africa (Nigeria), five are in Asia (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan), two are in Latin America (Brazil and Mexico), one is in Northern America (US), and one is in Europe (Russian Federation).
UN report
Of these, Nigeria’s population, currently the seventh largest in the world, is growing the most rapidly. “Consequently, the population of Nigeria is projected to surpass that of the US by about 2050, at which point it would become the third largest country in the world,” the UN said. By 2050, six countries are expected to exceed 300 million: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the US.
The UN’s latest report is the 24th round of official UN population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the population division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
* Ellis Mnyandu is the editor of Business Report. Follow him on Twitter: @Ellis_Mnyandu
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