Johannesburg - Many express scepticism as to the accuracy of crime statistics put out by the South African Police Service each year.
Nonetheless, to the extent that one can use them as a gauge of crime trends, the latest ones relating to the year April 2014 to March 2015 are relatively disturbing.
They show that the incidence of contact crimes tended to rise for the third year in a row across the board during that year, compared with the preceding year, reversing what had appeared to be an improving trend in many instances over the period 2010 to 2012.
* The deterioration in the crime situation could be linked to a corresponding deterioration in economic conditions over the period 2013 to 2015, compelling people to embark on desperate means to lay claim to material goods in the face of economic depravity. Some will also point to a lack of appropriate leadership in the police force contributing towards these trends.
* In particular, growth in the number of murders and aggravated robberies increased. Only in the case of commercially linked crimes does there appear to have been some respite.
* To the extent that a rising incidence of violent crime is likely to encourage emigration of skilled people, the latest figures augur ill for the longer-term economic growth prospects in South Africa.
Furthermore, the fact that there appears to be little light in the hoped-for improvement in the economic growth situation in the country in the medium term suggests that there is likely to be little improvement in the crime situation in the country over the coming year, unless one believes that the change in leadership in the police force can make a difference.
BUSINESS REPORT