Melanie Gosling
THERE are strong signals that world governments want to forge a strong climate change agreement at COP21 in Paris, says Marie-Hélène Aubert, French presidential advisor on international climate negotiations.
Aubert, head of the French delegation attending the SA International Renewable Energy Conference (SAIREC 2015) in the city, said what made the upbeat mood for a success in Paris different from a similar upbeat mood before the 2009 Copenhagen climate talks - which then failed dismally - was a change in the global context.
“Today there is not one country which says ‘I don’t want to play the game’, not one - and that is significant.”
Countries responsible for 75% of the world’s carbon emissions have so far set targets to cut emissions, and submitted them to the UN’s climate secretariat in the run-up to the Paris talks in December.
These “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) detail each nation’s reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions and the measures they will adopt to achieve them.
“This was on a voluntary approach and so we were not sure we would get many, but we have nearly 150 countries that have already done this, so there are only about 45 countries left - mostly very small countries. And it’s not just a piece of paper they have submitted. They have done real work to submit something credible. It is difficult to say now if we will get a strong agreement or not , but these are strong signals,” Aubert said.
There were also signals from the global business community of the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
“The world of business understands it will have to adapt, and there is a new trend to be more efficient in using energy and especially in reducing greenhouse gases. That’s new in business. The new markets and new businesses of tomorrow will be zero carbon. “Aubert believes the primary reason for the shift in the business world was the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report in 2013, which laid out the stark reality of a warming planet.
“The last report was perfectly clear. We have some climate sceptics, in the US in particular, but now there is a community of views that we are all facing global warming which humanity has never faced before. There is almost unanimity on this.”
Another major reason for the shift in views generally was the increase in extreme weather all over the world, a wake-up call for all nations and sectors that they had to tackle climate change.
“Superstorm Sandy’s effects in New York especially raised awareness about extreme weather events in the United States. Droughts, floods and heatwaves all over the world are more frequent. Many countries felt apart from these problems and were not so concerned, but not so much any more. I think that is an important change.”
The context of who was concerned about climate change had also changed since the Copenhagen talks, with a move away from mainly activists to include many networks of mayors, national governments and authorities at all levels.
“That is good news. Of course many people have short-term goals - a house, a job - but people are still concerned about conditions like climate change which affect their daily lives. We have just one planet.”