Editorial: Mozambiquepoll

Published Oct 15, 2014

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As in South Africa, the question is not whether the ruling party will win today’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique, but by how much. Many analysts predict that Frelimo’s majority in both polls could be slashed.

Some even suggest that its presidential candidate, the rather obscure Filipe Nyusi, might fail to win 50 percent in the first round against Renamo’s Afonso Dhlakama and the MDM’s Daviz Simango.

Nyusi would then face a tricky run-off against the opposition, united behind one candidate. More likely, Frelimo could fail to win a majority in the legislative elections, and so could be outvoted by Renamo and MDM joining forces.

Instability is a lurking danger, though. Renamo has only just returned to electoral politics from its latest relapse into guerrilla warfare. But Dhlakama could return to the bush if he loses, as he probably will. That would be particularly bad for Mozambique at a critical moment in its history.

It stands on the verge of great opportunity, with vast reserves of gas and coal waiting to be tapped.

Political instability would probably thwart much of that development – and could play into the hands of Frelimo by allowing it, if it so chose, to restrict democracy and transparency in the name of national security.

That would also shield it from too much scrutiny of how it is managing – or mismanaging – the large resource windfall.

Depending on how it is managed, that windfall could become a resource blessing, redistributing wealth to the majority who have so far seen little of Mozambique’s fast-growing economy.

Or it could become yet another resource curse, concentrating wealth even more in the hands of a corrupt elite.

Today’s elections could help decide which road the country takes. It is probably too much to expect a change of government. But a strong performance by the opposition – especially the more rational MDM – might at least help to keep Frelimo more honest.

It might even send it a wake-up call to start ruling in the interests of the national many, rather than the party few.

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