Brian Ingpen
Unprecedented events are happening in the maritime world. In the Mediterranean, the multitude of small boats continues to move the largest flow of refugees since World War II, leaving European governments unable to cope with the flood of humanity – a product of eternal Middle Eastern instability.
As I wrote in July, echoed by a correspondent last week, perhaps among the masses streaming to Europe are some with IS leanings or others of their evil ilk to bring mayhem in the countries hosting so many.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the South China Sea saw another tragedy involving thousands of “boat people” fleeing warn-torn south-east Asia in rickety craft, many bearing scores of refugees with scant supplies for their voyage to nowhere, but hoping for something better than the napalm and rockets of that war. Even that mass exodus does not compare with the current human tragedy.
Also in the South China Sea, an extensive construction project has seen artificial islands emerge from the sea, extending China’s territorial waters and, for possible offshore oil production, its economic exclusion one.
Some structures on these man-made islands confirm that the island-building programme has military purposes, causing concern among several countries who view this audacious project – alongside China’s rapid naval expansion and manoeuvres in the region – as signs of the large dragon flexing its muscles.
Years before the latest military stirrings significant economic growth began to influence shipping in a big way.
Even young salts will remember the heady days of the Chinese urbanisation boom that led to unprecedented demand for oil, construction materials and minerals when some Capesize bulkers were on charter for over $200 000 a day to move iron ore and coal to feed the steel mills of Shanghai, Dalian and Qingdao.
By 2008, the same ships were barely breaking even following the global financial crash, while the country’s current economic malaise has reduced demand for minerals in the former steel-guzzling dragon, keeping bulker charter and freight rates low. Recent Capesize time charter fixtures average just over $13 000 a day.
I recall the interest that local shipping folks displayed when the first COSCO containerships, based in Dalian, became regular callers at South African ports after 1994. Their capacity of around 1 400 teu pales against the larger Chinese vessels now using South African harbours as wayports.
China’s two largest containership operators will combine to propel the amalgamated outfit further up the global ladder in terms of fleet size, although redundant vessels will become steel for the Chinese vehicle industry.
The Chinese economic slowdown has changed the country’s major demand from iron, coal and other minerals to food, and the bulker market may get the hoped-for spur in moving grain to China.
Given population growth, possible drought conditions and the self-inflicted collapse of agriculture in our northern neighbour, southern Africa has little grain to export.
l Laden tankers continue to queue in the roadstead, waiting to discharge a variety of products including diesel. A shortage of bunkers is also inhibiting those who would promote Cape Town as a bunker port of choice for passing ships. I understand that some is going to our competitor, Walvis Bay!