Christine Tierney
FRANKFURT: The love affair between people and their cars, still passionate after a hundred years, looks set to last long into the next century - if the industry succeeds in making clean, affordable vehicles.
The biggest developments are likely to take place under the hood, with the German auto industry leading the race to produce a hydrogen-powered car that emits nothing but water vapour.
Car companies have developed low-polluting vehicles, silent electric cars and hybrids with both electric and petrol engines like the Toyota Prius, but they all have drawbacks.
Electric cars run on batteries which must be charged often and for long periods, losing the spontaneity that made the car a 20th-century symbol of freedom and fun. But with smog and congestion spoiling cities, and traffic expected to soar as Third World incomes rise, pollution has overtaken fuel-efficiency as the number one concern.
By 2025-2030 the number of cars on the road could double to one billion, according to some forecasts.
"The fuel cell is the most promising option for the future. We are determined to be the first to bring it to market," said Juergen Hubbert, a DaimlerChrysler director.
The company has pledged to roll out an economically viable car powered by a fuel cell engine, which works by converting hydrogen into electricity, by 2004.
Hubbert said it was a question of reducing the bulk - hydrogen takes up a lot of space - and the cost, currently more than 10 times that of a conventional engine.
Taking another route, rival BMW is working on a virtually emission-free, hydrogen-burning internal combustion engine. Hydrogen-powered cars will not challenge the existing order for at least 20-25 years, auto executives say, because even if the technological hurdles are cleared, it will take time to set up the infrastructure - fuel stations selling hydrogen.
But companies are studying interim solutions whereby hydrogen might be extracted from methanol or petrol to power cleaner, though by no means emission-free, cars.
Judging from the reaction to the "Automobiles for the Next Century" exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Modern Art in New York, car enthusiasts are nearly as worried about styling as they are about the environment.
"I do not think it's necessary for environmentally friendly cars or economical vehicles to be distasteful and/or ugly, but most certainly are," said one visitor.
Other visitors described the collection, which included DaimlerChrysler's chunky Smart two-seater, Fiat's eccentric Multipla minivan, and GM's electric EV1, as "sad-looking", "uninspiring" and "bland".
Sadly, the flamboyant, rocket-inspired cars of the 1950s and 1960s with their sweeping fins and curved taillights were too heavy and wasteful by today's rigorous standards. Car designers are constrained by demands for greater safety, visibility and fuel efficiency, said Patrick Le Quement, Renault stylist who designed the Megane Scenic minivan.
Designers will have more freedom, however, to play with interiors, which are expanding as components shrink.
Suppliers are also unlocking space as they move toward the production of entire systems rather than individual components, allowing car companies to redesign cockpits to include the new gadgetry spawned by the information revolution.
Car makers now offer satellite-linked navigation systems to help urban drivers avoid traffic jams, equipment which allows them to download e-mail and back-seat TV videos for children.
Akira Imai, head of Toyota Motor Europe, said he envisages a world in which "every place, every product would be integrated into one network".
Conceptually, it would be possible. The car would be an information centre to the outside world. The sight of distracted drivers talking on the phone while switching lanes suggests that plugging more equipment into the dashboard might not be such a good idea.
Craig Muhlhauser, a president at Ford's Visteon, has an answer and it's already available on Ford's top of the line Jaguar cars - voice technology. A voice-activated personal computer can carry out requests for a change in temperature or radio station, read email or dial phone numbers so that drivers never have to take their eyes off the road or hands off the wheel. - Reuters