Arming the AU recognised government may be the only way to prevent Islamic State from consolidating its hold over Libya, writes Shannon Ebrahim.
Johannesburg - Libya is imploding. The UN brokered peace agreement is likely to be rejected by Libya’s internationally recognised parliament, and Islamic State is consolidating its control across swathes of the country.
What is left of the national army is struggling to fight the Islamist militants known as Libya Dawn controlling Tripoli on the one hand, and IS which is controlling Sirte, Darnah among other areas on the other. IS already considers Darnah an emirate which gives allegiance to the Caliphate based in Iraq.
The UN arms embargo imposed since 2011 is making it impossible for the internationally recognised government in Tobruk to arm what is left of the reconstituted national army. They desperately need arms, logistics and intelligence if they are going to wrest territory away from the Islamist militant groups. While Libya disintegrates, Africans from different corners of the continent are taking advantage of the chaos to make their way to Libyan ports to escape their misery and poverty and pursue the hazardous journey across the Mediterrean Sea to Europe.
Libya Dawn, which controls Tripoli, is also taking advantage of the waves of migrants to earn huge amounts of revenue from the columns of human misery. A former Libyan official who spoke to Independent Media on condition of anonymity has said that Libya Dawn actually encourages migrants to make the journey to Europe. The official claims Gadaffi also used to employ this tactic of facilitating migration to annoy Europe and put pressure on them.
The AU recognises the dangers that lie ahead in Libya, not only in terms of IS taking over the country, but violence and instability that will affect Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Niger and Chad which share hugely porous borders with Libya, and also the migration crisis. The AU Summit being held in Sandton held a special session on Libya on Friday in order to look at the options and chart the way forward.
While as Africans we all prefer to find political solutions to conflicts on the continent, this may be one of those instances in which arming the AU recognised government may be the only way to prevent IS from consolidating its hold over Libya.
There are daily battles in Tripoli between the army and Libya Dawn, it will be difficult for the army to regain control unless the arms embargo is lifted. If the AU dithers with fact finding missions or envoys it will find that Western powers steal the initiative, implementing their own military solutions, and again ignoring Africa’s preferred roadmap to peace.
Foreign Bureau