Pretoria - Not only will Oscar Pistorius face a bleak Christmas with the possibility of a 15-year jail sentence hanging over his head if the State succeeds with its appeal against his acquittal on murder, but the uncertainty will hang over him for the next few months.
Experts say the appeal may even overtake Pistorius’s possible release around next August or September, after he has served a 10-month stint in jail.
Judge Thokozile Masipa, sitting in the High Court in Pretoria, on Wednesday refused the State’s bid to appeal against his sentence, but granted its application to contest his conviction.
The matter is now going before the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) in Bloemfontein. This may take months, experts warned, as the roll of the appeal court was congested.
National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) spokesman Nathi Mncube said it was in the interest of Pistorius and the State to ensure the matter was expedited, but it was not up to the NPA as to how long it would take. “We are not going to put pressure on them to do what we want,” he said.
Senior advocate and criminal law expert Johann Engelbrecht is of the opinion that the process would take about nine months to be concluded.
“There is no chance that the appeal court will allocate a preferential date for this appeal to be heard sooner. There simply are no circumstances present to warrant a preferential date,” he said.
Pretoria lawyer Konrad Rontgen agreed with this time estimate.
“Due to the appeal court’s roll being so congested, I don’t foresee this appeal being heard before the last court term for next year (around October/November).
“By implication, this may have the effect that Pistorius might already have been released by the time judgment is handed down.”
Pistorius was sentenced to a five-year jail term. He has to serve about 10 months of his sentence before the remainder of the five years can be converted into correctional supervision (mainly house arrest).
Professor Annette van der Merwe, a criminal justice expert at the University of Pretoria, is of the opinion that the State has a bleak chance of winning the appeal against the murder acquittal.
“I don’t think anything in Pistorius’s life is going to change after this appeal. I think the appeal court will simply confirm the judgment as it stands.”
There was a fine line between a guilty finding in accordance with the doctrine of dolus eventualis and negligence (culpable homicide).
“Even if the State’s appeal succeeded, I don’t think it would make a difference to Pistorius’s sentence.”
A five-year jail term, serving 10 months before being released on correctional supervision, was a far harsher sentence than a straight five-year jail term, she said.
As things now stand, Pistorius would be under strict supervision by Correctional Services officials when he was released for the remainder of his sentence - about four years. If he were jailed for a straight five years, he would serve half his term and then be freed on parole, meaning less harsh conditions.
Engelbrecht said while he too could not see the State succeeding with its appeal, but Pistorius could face a 15-year jail term (if no mitigating circumstances were found) if his culpable homicide conviction were changed to a finding of murder. But the issue was now in the hands of the appeal court.
Pretoria News