Potholes to Mangaung

President Jacob Zuma would get his second term if the ANC held its national conference tomorrow, but it would have been a fraught and tensely fought return to the party’s highest office.

However, a week – in this case eight months – is a long time in politics.

Political allegiance and friendship can change dramatically.

Officially, there is no succession battle, nor are there any discussions on, nor lobbying for, candidates until October when nominations open – there is only “leadership evaluation”.

However, the ANC’s rose-coloured rhetoric belies what is taking place in its regions across the country.

From Capricorn to Lejweleputswa, Bophirima to the West Coast, a complex contest is unfolding. It is drawing on local power and influence, including a potentially explosive mix of political office, or grievances over having lost council or provincial government positions, to offers of financial gain and, in some cases, violence.

Thus it is too simplistic to say that provincial membership strengths translate into delegates’ votes at the Mangaung national conference. Similarly, it is too simplistic to say that depending on the persuasion of an ANC chairman, the province’s delegates would fall in line.

The picture at grassroots is more nuanced and, at previous conferences, delegates representing branches within regions have shown their independent mindedness in the secret ballot.

While KwaZulu-Natal has worked hard to successfully sideline anti-Zuma voices in its ranks, it does not mean support in the largest ANC province, or about 24 percent of delegates, will bring victory at Mangaung.

The fight is region by region, but it’s an underground battle, with all the related dirty tricks and smear campaigns.

There was a clearly defined Zuma versus Thabo Mbeki battle in the run-up to the 2007 Polokwane national conference, with Cosatu, the South African Communist Party and the ANC Youth League throwing their support behind Zuma.

Today there is no face for the anti-Zuma campaign – certainly not after the expulsion of Julius Malema, the youth league leader who publicly called for leadership change at Mangaung. Much touted as a contender, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe has publicly neither denied nor confirmed a possible run.

Saddam Masupha, from Gwa-Masenga branch in Vhembe, Limpopo, said while he would take a mandate from his branch, he would vote for Zuma in Mangaung if things were to go his way.

“Kgalema is not clear whether he is standing or not. He is not telling us whether he is available or not, and that is the problem. I do not even know who or which branches support him. I have seen Zuma’s line-up and it is powerful,” said the unemployed 35-year-old.

While liking Zuma because he was accessible and made it possible for him to report corruption on the Presidential Anti-Corruption Hotline, Masupha said, he knew very little about Motlanthe’s campaign.

Without a face, the anti-Zuma campaign is condemned to backrooms, with only occasional public displays of sentiment – the raising of a hand over one’s head with fingers pointing downwards to symbolise a showerhead, the gesture disparaging of Zuma as the man who gives trouble.

A factor that will evolve over time is that of the “Friends of Julius Malema”, established to provide him with a public platform outside the ANC in a replay of the support garnered around Zuma and his court battles in the two years ahead of the Polokwane conference.

But anything not in the open holds the potential for manipulation.

The ANC is aware of this: it has admitted, and condemned, vote-buying and lobbying for candidates as “un-ANC”. More recently, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe insisted branches must be allowed to think “and not be given a list of slates developed by a narrow, well-resourced circle in the ANC” and the frequent admission, and condemnation, of money for votes and un-ANC-like lobbying for support, dating back to the party’s national general council in September 2010.

While its organisational renewal proposals on banning the financial backing of candidates, even funding T-shirts, and the vetting of candidates by the integrity commission could be adopted at Mangaung, they would only govern future behaviour.

Meanwhile, it remains the task of senior leaders to speak out. As did Motlanthe at the December ANC Limpopo conference, where he condemned slates, or candidate lists, as the “worst form of corruption of the spirit, character and vision”.

“Stealing away the voice of members through slates, buying of votes and treating the ordinary membership as voting fodder therefore serves no other purpose than to corrupt the organisation,” he said, warning against purging those from the losing slate regardless of whether they have skills and capacity to contribute to work or the party.

However, soon afterwards Limpopo premier Cassel Mathale, at the start of his second term as ANC chairman, reshuffled his cabinet and excluded three people perceived to have been on the other side, and demoted a fourth.

Word is that Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza, the pro-Zuma politician also recently re-elected for a second term, will do the same to shore up his support. The far-reaching manipulation of who’s in and out crosses the lines of state and party: Gert Sibande mayor Khotso Motloung, a Mpumalanga youth league leader and vocal in the call for leadership change, was given his marching orders.

The signals from those in party and state power are clear to those in branches, whom the ANC calls its backbone.

And why should what worked in the run-up to Polokwane – swelling the ranks of ANC branches to ensure Zuma was nominated, the involvement of state structures and political plots and ploys – work now?

The intelligence services are again accused of becoming politically involved amid claims they are being asked to watch politicians. What is playing out around intelligence boss Richard Mdluli, the drafter of the KwaZulu-Natal ground zero plot against Zuma who remains accused of abusing the police’s slush funds, is unsettling.

And sometimes political tensions lead to blows – or worse.

Luthuli House has dispatched a task team to manage tensions in the Free State where pressure is mounting on Zuma ally Ace Magashule, who maintains tight control of Motheo.

Centred on the provincial capital Bloemfontein, it brings numbers and influence together and Magashule supporters hold all top five positions with four incumbents also in government jobs.

Some ANC regional leaders in the Free State, as in other provinces, have linked their political survival to that of Zuma’s, transcending provincial dynamics. Polediso Motsoeneng, secretary of the disbanded Thabo Mofutsanyana region and a known Magashule enemy, said he would support Zuma anyway.

“We support Zuma, we have a problem with Ace (Magashule). He is doing things in the name of the president, and he will never succeed,” he said.

In the Eastern Cape the political weathervane swings from region to region. And Zuma has visited often in the past six months, so much so that there are now claims that his education foundation is being deployed. Opposition is split between those in favour of Motlanthe and the third way, Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale.

The regional conferences, such as OR Tambo around Mthatha, not only hold numbers but influence, despite divisions, and have previously backed Zuma.

Gauteng is known to play its cards close to its chest and to bring its divisions to national conferences. In the run-up to the 2007 Polokwane conference, the province indicated support for a third way but the branch delegates overwhelmingly voted for Zuma.

Much sympathy remains for provincial ANC chairman Paul Mashatile, who despite being linked to the anti-Zuma camp, has trod a diplomatic and politically sussed line.

What is clear is that ANC regions, not necessarily provinces, are setting the road map for Mangaung. And as of today, Zuma has enough support in enough regions to make it back into office.

However, there are still seven months to go on the road to Mangaung – and a verification of branches by Luthuli House – and the journey remains open to manipulation.

Gauteng

ANC provincial chairman Paul Mashatile, the arts and culture minister, wields considerable power in the province and was bruised when Zuma did not appoint him Gauteng premier in 2009.

This sore point lingers among rank and file supporters.

Mashatile’s supporters, largely associated with a call for change, but quietly and diplomatically, are in charge of three of Gauteng’s five regions – Johannesburg, the most influential, Tshwane, the biggest, and Ekurhuleni.

“My suspicion is that we might keep them both – the president and his deputy – and change the rest.

“We might lock those two in those positions in the interest of the party and be open-minded about the other positions,” a provincial executive committee member said. “We are trying to go to conference united.”

A government official who is close to Mashatile said: “Gauteng has never been to a conference as a united force. Gauteng has never really voted as a block.”

At the 2007 Polokwane national conference, branches voted overwhelmingly for Zuma despite different notions among the provincial leadership.

The divisions in the regions are to a large extent over local politics. In 2010, factionalism and infighting was so rife, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni were disbanded. In Tshwane, two conferences took place last year: the parallel conference of those opposed to the election of mayor Sputla Ramokgopa as regional chairman led to subsequent disciplinary actions.

In the West Rand, the region which Gauteng premier Nomvula Mokonyane hails from, Humphrey Mmemezi, the deputy provincial secretary, swayed the vote in favour of Mashatile.

Mmemezi was then appointed an MEC in Mokonyane’s executive in a reshuffle that was forced on her.

In Sedibeng, there could be a serious contest for the position of chairman. Simon Mofokeng, the current regional chairman and mayor of the district municipality, will face opposition at the upcoming regional conference this month from Mosotho Petlane, the regional secretary. – Moffet Mofokeng

Western Cape

In the only province where the ANC is the opposition, the focus often falls on its role in local government – positions there and fighting the ruling DA – rather than party matters. And this muddies the picture, with observers saying it was a challenge to negotiate intra-ANC battles playing out in the council, province and society.

In the largest and most influential region, Dullah Omar, Cape Town, around a third of the 105 branches are not in good standing, according to insiders from the region.While much is linked to dysfunctional membership renewal – there is a push for members to take out five-year membership – personalities also play a role.

The ANC lost its Nyanga council seat in a recent by-election after the two unsuccessful candidates reportedly turned against the candidate selected through branch meetings.

In the Overberg, the problem with branches is centred around Swellendam, where the ANC and DA are neck-and-neck, and the ACDP now a free agent.

Work was under way to rehabilitate branches, according to the local ANC, but it was difficult as the tensions at council level, and personalities, play themselves out among members.

The West Coast regional structure was disbanded in March amid claims of factional fighting, officially denied, and too many branches not in good standing.

However, branches are being re-established ahead of regional elections later this month, according to the regional convener, despite the dominance of personalities which stalled effective ANC work and liaison with councils.

The exception is Central Karoo, around Beaufort West, where 14 of its 15 branches are up and running following the recently completed realignment with new municipal boundaries, according to the regional secretary.

While the ANC Western Cape elected new leaders in 2011, the historic factional fights remain those backing former provincial secretary Mcebisi Skwatsha and those rallying behind former rival, now chairman, Marius Fransman, the deputy international relations minister.

Insiders say if regions like West Coast, Boland and Dullah Omar, linked to the so-called Skwatsha group, hold sway, the province swings in favour of President Jacob Zuma, in a replay of the run-up to the 2007 Polokwane conference. However, Deputy President Kalema Motlanthe is popular across regions.

The current provincial secretary, former youth leaguer Songezo Mjongile, is accused of pushing for leadership change.

Mjongile has dismissed such claims, saying all ANC leaders from Zuma and Motlanthe to Gwede Mantashe have been invited to the province.

“The only aim was to renew ANC structures and to win the province in 2014, he said: “We discuss politics – that’s the culture I’m bringing back”.

With 43 000 members, it’s doubtful the province will make an impact. – Marianne Merten

Mpumalanga