No one at the helm of good ship RSA

Published Dec 13, 2014

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It’s clear Zuma does not enjoy the confidence of enough South Africans to play a uniting role, writes Craig Dodds.

 

There is something fundamentally unsettling, if you have had the privilege of electricity all your life, about the moment the lights go out.

There is a sudden, astonished silence as one of the basic assumptions of middle-class existence is subtracted from the universe.

Then, mentally, the lights go on again and a groan of “Eskom” goes up.

So 2014 ends with a gnashing of teeth and howling of indignation among the chattering classes as we enter our second great electricity crisis since 2008.

For those for whom electricity is a luxury, sometimes borrowed from a neighbour’s connection, the immediate effect may be less existentially traumatic, but the implications will, if anything, be felt more profoundly.

Already there is talk of job losses and it is clear the economy will struggle to get out of first gear until businesses have the assurance that any new ventures they might be contemplating will not be throttled at birth by power cuts.

Even the government’s initiatives to cushion the poor will be under threat if a limping economy translates into missed revenue targets. At the same time, the mixed responses to load shedding have exposed the fractures in society, as almost any controversial issue does in this country.

Many white South Africans revel in the apparent confirmation of their worst fears (or perverse hopes) about what a black-led government would deliver, prompting some of their black compatriots to leap to its defence. The actual reasons for and possible solutions to the crisis get lost in the din.

Meanwhile, other certainties are crumbling around us.

The governing ANC, once the unquestioned political north pole, appears to be floundering.

It won elections in May with a handsome (if reduced) majority but has since been conducting itself as though unsure of its strength.

It has been under fire inside and outside Parliament, primarily over Nkandla, and has yet to come up with a confident response.

At the same time one of the constituent elements of the tripartite alliance – Cosatu – is in intensive care and possibly terminal, while the labour movement as a whole fragments further.

Whereas this time last year, when metalworkers union Numsa declared it would not support the ANC in the coming elections and would explore ways of working with civil society to form a united front, the union federation appeared to be teetering on the brink, today, with Numsa expelled.

It is impossible to say with any certainty where this will lead in either the political or labour spheres – and in the interplay between them.

On the one hand, greater freedom for workers to choose a union that best serves their interests might seem to be an advance, given the common complaint that union leaders have become estranged from their constituencies in the pursuit of personal advancement.

A number of the incumbents stand accused of looting union investment vehicles or selling out the interests of workers to gain political favour.

On the other hand employers will be in a position to play the unions off against one another even as they, in turn, feel compelled to compete for members by making improbable demands.

And Cosatu’s muted influence in the alliance might ultimately lead to the rolling back of some of the labour movement’s gains of the past two decades.

Whether that would be a good or bad thing depends on your point of view – probably linked to your station in society – but there is a strong chance the labour environment will become more turbulent, at a time when cool heads are required in the common interest.

Even without the power crisis the economy is clearly not well, with growth expectations constantly revised downwards and the ever-present threat of further downgrades from rating agencies.

Naked racism, of the impolite, unsubtle variety, has made an unwelcome return in ugly incidents that suggest we may actually be further apart than ever – at least on the outer fringes, while the middle wallows in an uneasy tolerance consisting in part of white denial.

If, a year ago, we were compelled by the death of Nelson Mandela to ask, “Who are we without him?” the answer today is no doubt an uncertain one.

It is as though our electricity crisis has become a crisis of confidence. Darkness nurtures anxiety and this is a society in need of assurance. These are the moments in the life of a nation when great leaders typically get their chance to shine but ours are not in a position to do so.

As we look to 2015, it’s clear President Jacob Zuma, to put it mildly, does not enjoy the confidence of enough South Africans to play a uniting role.

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Political Bureau

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