Mongomo – The calculators were hauled out straight after the final whistle was blown in the Group C match between Bafana Bafana and Senegal on Friday night.
Ghana tore the Africa Cup of Nations group wide open with their 1-0 win against Algeria in the earlier match on Friday.
However, South Africa could have torn it to shreds had they beaten Senegal.
Now Bafana head into the final round of group matches on Tuesday (8pm) at the bottom of the table and looking for victory over Ghana.
Also, they need a favourable result in the other match between Senegal and Algeria for them to qualify for the quarter-finals.
It gets a bit complicated because of Caf’s head-to-head rule for the tournament.
The one thing Bafana have to do is win, and, depending on the result in the other match, win handsomely.
If Algeria and Senegal draw, and Bafana beat Ghana, the South Africans and the Desert Foxes will be on the same number of points.
But Bafana will pack their bags because they lost to Algeria in their first match.
And that is a problem. If Bafana romp to a 3-0 lead against Ghana at the Estadio de Mongomo, and news filters across to Malabo where the other match will be played, then Algeria and Senegal could just play out for a draw, because Ghana will then be out of the equation.
While Ghana are still in it, the other teams must go for the win. What a nightmare situation!
So, Bafana can only go through if they win and there is a win for either Senegal or Algeria.
If Senegal win and Bafana win, Senegal and Bafana will progress to the last eight because they will have more points than the other teams.
But if Algeria beat Senegal, then Bafana’s goal difference needs to be better than Senegal’s tally, as the two teams will have the same number of points, and they played to a 1-1 draw in their meeting.