London - For years I always used to see the same expression when I looked at Rafa Nadal’s face. It was hard to detect any emotions. He wore a look that simply said to his opponent: “I’ve got you, buddy. You ain’t goin’ nowhere.”
When I look at Nadal today I see something different. I’m beginning to see signs of emotion in his face that never used to be there. I see signs of a lack of confidence. I see signs of self-doubt. And as soon as you start to have doubts, that’s when you can be vulnerable.
Nadal says he is physically fine and that his knees are not a problem, but I just look at him and wonder how healthy he is. I don’t think his movement is what it used to be. I’m reluctant to pass judgement when I can’t be 100 percent certain how he is, but my own eyes suggest he might be struggling.
It always used to be the case that the longer rallies went on, the greater the advantage to Nadal. His attitude towards his opponent used to be very simple: “Go on, amigo. If you hit 10 shots, then I’m going to hit 11. If you want to hit 22 shots then I’ll be happy to hit 23.”
That’s not what I see today - and I think other players are starting to see a change too. They detect that he’s not quite the player he used to be. The long rallies don’t necessarily favour him any more.
I suspect it’s just a question of age and miles on the clock. Nadal turned 29 earlier this month. He’s been playing on the main tour since he was 16 and he’s played nearly 900 matches.
You can point to the fact that Roger Federer is still going strong, even though he’s nearly five years older and has played more than 1 200 matches, but you have to consider the way the two men play the game. Federer attacks the ball and shortens points. Nadal has been one of the great defensive players, someone who wins points by grinding opponents down and making them play the extra ball.
Nevertheless, he’s still someone you wouldn’t rule out of the equation. Although he’s had some bad defeats at the All England Club in the last few years, losing to Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis and Nick Kyrgios, you don’t get to five Wimbledon finals without being a master of grass-court tennis.
What I do worry about is how he would fare if he came up against the best players, how he would cope with a Federer or a Djokovic or an Andy Murray. I think it would be tough for him to beat any of those guys.
I hope I’m wrong because Nadal’s a great person. If we had more people like him in the world it would be a much better, richer, healthier and more gentle place.
So who can win the men’s title? You would have to rate Djokovic and Murray as the two favourites.
Can Federer win an eighth Wimbledon title? Boy, stranger things have happened. He has improved his serve, especially the wide slice. Playing with a bigger racket has clearly helped him and I like the way his coach has encouraged him to move closer to the baseline. Now I think the key is to get into the net as much as possible. The more Federer gets into the net, the better his chances.
Having said all that, I think you can never discount the spoilers, the guys who are capable on their day of surprising the top players.
* Nick Bollettieri is one of the world’s most admired tennis coaches whose players have included Andre Agassi, the Williams sisters and Maria Sharapova.
The Independent