Nigeria’s new president, Muhammadu Buhari, faces great challenges and even greater expectations in a country beset by problems, writes John L. Hirsch.
Johannesburg - The strong victory achieved by Muhammadu Buhari and his All Progressives Congress in Nigeria’s March 30 elections was remarkable: it was the first time in 55 years that a ruling party in the country had been voted out of power rather than being toppled in a military coup.
The peaceful transfer of power alone would make this election a major achievement for the forces of democracy and constitutional rule.
Voters handed a crushing defeat to the People’s Democratic Party led by Goodluck Jonathan, which had ruled Nigeria without interruption since 1999.
Buhari’s All Progressives Congress took almost 55 percent of the popular vote, and the People’s Democratic Party 45 percent.
The election also was remarkably well-run, peaceful, and featured few charges of fraud. This was in sharp contrast to previous elections, which were marred by voting irregularities and significant post-electoral violence.
The large margin of victory for Buhari and the All Progressives Congress was due overwhelmingly to widespread popular dissatisfaction with Jonathan’s government.
Since its electoral victory in 2005, it had proved unable to stem the advance of Boko Haram insurgents in northern Nigeria, to deal with the faltering economy in the face of declining oil revenues, and to stem the tide of corruption.
Boko Haram’s kidnapping of 250 girls in April last year and its attacks on civilians in towns in the north destroyed public confidence in the military.
The failure to defeat Boko Haram and Nigeria’s dependence on forces from Chad – a much smaller country – to liberate northern towns underlined the army’s poor leadership and declining effectiveness.
A second important factor was the perception of widespread bureaucratic corruption and the widening economic and social disparity between the more prosperous Christian south and the more impoverished Muslim north. After the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua in November 2009, Goodluck Jonathan took over and continued the national political trend of domination by a leader from the south, instead of alternating with the north.
Jonathan’s decision to delay the elections, originally scheduled for February, and last-ditch efforts to defeat Boko Haram had little effect on popular dissatisfaction.
Nigeria has been at the forefront of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) since its inception in 1975.
It took the lead in mounting Ecowas interventions in Liberia and Sierra Leone in the 1990s, bringing an end to civil wars in both countries. In the past decade, however, the capacity of its army has deteriorated.
Nigeria has played little role in conflicts in Ivory Coast, Mali and the Central African Republic. Its weakness has left a leadership vacuum in the quest for peaceful solutions to these conflicts.
Nigeria’s political history since independence in 1960 has been characterised by weak, often corrupt, civilian rulers alternating with authoritarian military rule. Buhari himself carried out a coup 30 years ago. Expectations for his term are high. Whether they should be is a matter for debate.
Buhari is 73, notably taciturn, and uncharismatic. He does not offer vision and is a figure of some rectitude. He is described by some as being a “born-again democrat”, after his stint as a military dictator.
It remains to be seen whether he can effect major reforms to the army or carry through on his pledge to defeat Boko Haram. Even more problematic is whether he can attack deeply entrenched patterns of corruption in the army, parliament or the civilian bureaucracy. A few post-electoral speeches will be insufficient to provide answers to these important questions.
As the Centre for Conflict Resolution’s executive director, Adekeye Adebajo, has said, what is new is that an incompetent government has been voted out by the citizenry.
There is now, for the first time in Nigeria’s history, an opportunity to link performance with accountability – a point that may have reverberations elsewhere in Africa.
* Hirsch is Senior Adviser at the International Peace Institute. He is a former US ambassador to Sierra Leone.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
The Sunday Independent