The tragic events that have led to a split in Cosatu is proof that Zuma has failed in the historic task of keeping the alliance united, says Jovial Rantao.
In softball or baseball parlance, President Jacob Zuma has just touched third base and is hurtling towards home. He is in the last stretch of his journey and preoccupied with one key question. And that is how history will judge the 14th president of the ANC and South Africa’s fourth democratically elected leader.
Facts reveal that the ANC and its historic alliance have disintegrated under his watch. This week’s major political event, the break-up of Cosatu, sits uncomfortably as an example of how things have gone from bad to worse under his political stewardship.
The history of the ANC-SACP-Cosatu tripartite alliance is littered with evidence of tension, brought about by competing interests.
Successive leaders of the ANC have been able to manage these tensions by not only addressing them, but also reminding the alliance leadership to focus on what unites these progressive forces.
The tragic events that have led to a split in Cosatu, which will undoubtedly lead to similar problems in the alliance, is proof that the Zuma leadership has failed in the historic task of keeping the alliance united.
An ANC special task team headed by the ANC deputy president had worked hard for several months to try to avert a split. Despite their efforts, they failed to prevent events that culminated in the dramatic end witnessed a week ago.
Historically, alliance members accepted that the ANC was the leader of the alliance. At times, when tensions reached critical levels, it became important for the ANC leadership deliberately to use the words “ANC-led alliance” to drive home the fact that the liberation movement had a special role to play.
And so does the president of the ANC. His role, among other things, would be to lead the alliance and keep it together. This the president of the ANC had to do because the alliance, as a voting bloc, could stand between winning and losing in elections.
With the slim winning margin in Gauteng in the recent elections, there will be deep concern about the implications of the split, the ANC’s support in Gauteng, and its ability to hold on to this strategically important province.
The ANC must be worried, too, about what this week’s events will mean for the local government elections scheduled for 2016. There must also be concern about what the split will mean for the alignment of forces as the national general council date looms nearer.
Optimists in the ANC believe that the party’s leadership still stands a chance of rescuing the alliance and healing the rift. The unity of the alliance, they claim, is bigger than any price the ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance would pay if they allowed the split to be permanent. It then means that we should expect serious efforts to bring the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) back into the fold.
Pessimists say that a vehicle has been created to replace Numsa within, and the only effort would be to encourage Numsa members – who are also ANC members – to join the newly formed Metal and Allied Workers Union. The new union is led by former Numsa president Cedric Gcina.
What eventually happens to the once-mighty Cosatu is the challenge facing the leader of the alliance, the ANC and its president.
The ANC president has to fight to be the glue that keeps the ANC together, because the split will stick out like a sore thumb on his political CV.
The split in Cosatu is not the only major blot on Zuma’s record.
Under his watch, the ANC has split twice. He was only a few months into his party presidency when Mosiuoa Lekota led a breakaway group to form Cope. The new party, which threatened to give the ANC a run for its money, has failed dismally in the past two national and provincial elections. It was destroyed by internal fights for leadership.
Recently, disgruntled members of the ANC followed Julius Malema to create yet another splinter group. The Economic Freedom Fighters will be reflected on Zuma’s CV as a failure to keep the party together, under any circumstances and at any cost.
In both instances, the splits occurred because the protagonists dared to take on Zuma by expressing, publicly, their unhappiness with his leadership.
So, as he enters the twilight of his tenure as president, as he heads home and looks over his shoulder, what does he see? In what state is the ANC that Zuma is leaving behind? In what state is the ANC-SACP-Cosatu tripartite alliance that his predecessors fought so hard to preserve?
* Jovial Rantao is the editor of the Sunday Independent
Sunday Independent