After all the political capital SA invested in the Burundi peace process, we cannot afford to see peace accords unravel, says Shannon Ebrahim.
Johannesburg - The political crisis in Burundi is unlike those in other African states where presidents want to secure a third term in office – Burundi is a tinderbox, in its post-colonial history and now.
Presidents throughout the region have used all kinds of tactics to stay in power. Namibian President Sam Nujoma changed the constitution in 1998 to secure a third term for himself, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been in power for 29 years, Rwandan President Paul Kagame for 15 years, and President Joseph Kabila for 14 years.
Should we be focusing so much on a third-term bid for Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza?
The answer is yes because the instability in Burundi’s capital Bujumbura threatens to escalate and spread, leading to a harsher government clampdown and ultimately risks the crisis taking on an ethnic tone with far more nefarious consequences.
Since Burundi gained independence in 1962, it has endured endless cycles of bloodletting, with genocide taking place in 1972, 1988, and 1993. The civil war between Hutus and Tutsis that lasted from 1993 until the Arusha Peace Accords of 2005 resulted in 300 000 dead.
South Africa spearheaded the only successful peace process in Burundi under the mediation of then-president Nelson Mandela and deputy president Jacob Zuma.
Where 14 international peace processes failed, South Africa managed to secure peace in Burundi through the painstaking negotiations that continued for weeks on end, overseen by Zuma – a mediator par excellence.
This was arguably one of Zuma’s greatest international achievements.
After all the political capital South Africa invested in the Burundi peace process, we cannot afford to see the Arusha Peace Accords unravel at this juncture. Burundi was hailed a success story and its integrated army has received accolades as UN and regional peacekeepers.
While the military has acted responsibly and with neutrality in the recent unrest, political and ethnic dynamics could change this.
Burundi is in crisis because its president wants a third term, and he cites the Burundian Constitution which states that a president must be elected directly by the people, for a maximum of two terms.
Nkurunziza has governed for two terms but in his first term, he was not elected directly by the people, hence the ambiguity.
According to the Arusha Peace Accords, a president can serve only two terms.
The AU took a decision to await the decision of the Constitutional Court of Burundi as to Nkurunziza’s eligibility to run.
Herein lies the problem.
Four of the seven judges in the Constitutional Court were of the opinion that the president was ineligible to run again.
According to the vice-president of the court, Judge Sylvere Nimpagaritse, “the judges were under enormous pressure and death threats from senior government leaders”.
Nimpagaritse fled the country for Rwanda on Monday.
Eager to find African solutions to African problems, the East African Community (EAC) has dispatched four foreign ministers to Burundi to assess the situation. The foreign ministers of Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda are in Burundi. There will be an EAC summit next Wednesday in Dar es Salaam, where regional leaders hope to convince Nkurunziza to step down.
If they fail in their mission, the consequences could be dire. Already the UN High Commissioner says 40 000 Burundians – mostly Tutsis – have fled to Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania. Tutsis fear another genocide, and letters containing pictures of coffins and graves have been pushed under their doors.
Some allege the letters are being distributed by the ruling party’s youth wing known as the Imbonerakure.
Radio stations which are allowed to operate are also sending out broadcasts in an increasingly ethnic tone.
The recent increase in ethnic discourse in the country has also been triggered by land claims made by Hutus, who fled the country in 1972, and who have been returning and wanting land.
This is a dangerous cocktail given the history of Burundi.
Not only could Burundi descend into chaos, but the dynamics of its conflict threaten to destabilise the region.
It is reported that some FDLR (Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda) fighters from Eastern DRC have joined forces with the Imbonerakure in Burundi, and are operating on the ground.
The FDLR fighters are the Hutu ex-genocidaires and new Hutu rebels that Rwanda has been trying to flush out of the Eastern Congo, which it believes are a direct threat to its national security.
There is also a risk that Rwanda could use the infiltration of FDLR fighters into Burundi as a pretext to intervene militarily in that country, which could lead to a greater armed conflagration with distinct ethnic overtones.
It is imperative that South Africa, in the context of the AU, exercises preventive diplomacy to ensure that a peaceful transition of power takes place in Burundi.
* Shannon Ebrahim is foreign editor of Independent Media.
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