South Africans should brace for candle-lit Christmas dinners this year, as Eskom has not ruled out higher stages of power cuts – up to Stage 8 – after implementing Stage 6 load shedding for the first time since September 18.
The struggling power utility yesterday increased load shedding from Stage 3 to Stage 4 in the morning, then ramped it up to Stage 6 indefinitely, at noon.
Eskom said this was due to a high number of breakdowns since midnight on Tuesday, as well as the requirement to strictly preserve the remaining emergency generation reserves.
The utility currently has breakdowns totalling 17 800MW of capacity, in addition to planned maintenance of 5 400MW, together taking 23 200MW off the grid.
Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said, “We have been saying for at least three months now that we will have a very tough six to 12 months going forward.
Mantshantsha said that was particularly because in October Eskom put down three units totalling 2 100MW at Kusile power station after one of them had a chimney failure, and the other two were placed offline.
He said Eskom’s generation capacity will also be severely impacted by the six-months outage of unit 1 at Koeberg Nuclear power station, which will be shut down for normal maintenance and refuelling, and the replacement of the three steam generators today, as part of the long-term operation to extend its life for another 20 years.
This will remove 920MW of generation capacity from the national grid during this time.
“That on its own having 4 000MW of capacity out just like that has increased significantly the risk of load shedding. Unfortunately this will carry on for at least a year with an added risk of load shedding,” Mantshantsha said.
“The reality is that up to 8 stages of load shedding can be implemented when the need has arisen, just as it has now. No one can legitimately tell what stage on average (we) will get over the next three to six months, precisely because the machines that (we) are relying on at any particular given time, just break down unexpectedly.”
Last month, Eskom warned that this loss of capacity, temporary as it is, will make for a very challenging summer season, particularly as this is its peak planned maintenance period where a number of units at various power stations have to be shut down to conduct much-needed maintenance.
The high levels of unplanned outages have already contributed to more than the 170 days of load shedding experienced since January.
Independent energy expert, Lungile Mashele, placed the energy crisis at the doorstep of Eskom’s leadership and the shareholder department for lacking a sense of urgency to resolve the crisis.
Mashele said challenges such as lack of proper maintenance planning, poor execution, a skills shortage and a lack of quality control were all problems internal to Eskom and need to be resolved by the leadership at Eskom.
“The need to preserve generation is most likely an attempt to avert Stage 8 or more load shedding. Diesel needs to be replenished as does the pumped storage. This can only happen overnight,” Mashele said.
“Eskom needs to procure quickly, and expose the departments or ministries delaying decision-making. We are in a crisis and cannot afford bureaucracy…
“The national electricity crisis committee established by the president to fast-track issues related to Eskom has only had one public engagement, are they still working? What’s their plan? What could be more important than our electricity crisis?” Mashele said.
Meanwhile, economists have warned that South Africa’s economy was facing several headwinds despite growing by a surprising 1.6% in the third quarter.
Anchor Capital investment analyst Casey Delport yesterday said infrastructure and power constraints were still placing severe pressure on the country’s long-term growth prospects.
Delport said this latest quarter of growth might not be sustainable, and the pressures are already building for a low print for the fourth quarter of 2022.
“These are all pressures that will not be easing anytime soon,” Delport said.
“Thus, this latest incidence of high load shedding – which has been in effect every day since October 10– will simply serve to build on these existing pressures and weigh on the fourth quarter outlook for growth,” she said.
BUSINESS REPORT