Whoever emerges from Ukraine's post-election turmoil in charge, avoiding another poll and gaining support from the IMF and Russia will be key to drawing investors back to one of Europe's biggest undeveloped economies.
Long used to uncertainty in Ukraine -- four elections in five years, collapsed governments and ugly political rows -- investors are cheered that nightmare scenarios after a presidential election earlier this month were avoided.
But as the former Soviet state of 46 million struggles to pay off debt and its economy emerges shakily from the worst contraction in 15 years, analysts say a new order must appear fast to re-engage with the International Monetary Fund and the billions that could help prop up state finances.
Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich, who was denied the top job by the 2004 "Orange Revolution", won this election but his victory has not been recognised by his rival Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who has accused him of rigging the vote.
Nevertheless, she has backed away from calling mass street protests -- anecdotal evidence showed there was no appetite for this -- and Western leaders have congratulated Yanukovich after international election monitors said the vote was clean.
The hryvnia currency, stock markets, sovereign bonds and credit default swaps have fluctuated slightly but held broadly steady since the February 7 election.
"That is a fairly good achievement compared to what happened elsewhere ... That's a reflection of the fact that from the market's point of the view, we have avoided some of the worst scenarios," said Commerzbank analyst Dmitry Sentchoukov.
"The markets would like to see a more consolidated government, re-engagement with the IMF and more constructive relations with Russia," he said.
And they are willing to wait for now.
"I don't think anyone expects a solution within six weeks," said Kasper Bartholdy, head of sovereign strategy at Credit Suisse. "The bond market has been clearly tolerant. There is no real news. The market has come to expect it will take time."
"WE'RE READY TO INVEST"
Although Tymoshenko has challenged the election result in a court, most Ukraine watchers think that is aimed at undermining Yanukovich's legitimacy and few expect her to succeed. Irrespective of the challenge, Yanukovich has a tough few weeks and maybe months to consolidate his power. Tymoshenko's government stays in place until, and if, parliament sacks it.
Then his supporters must form a coalition which in turn would create a government and present a new prime minister.
Investors hope he can do all of this without calling a fresh parliamentary election, but parliament is famously fractious and Yanukovich would have to attract the supporters of outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko -- a traditional rival.
"If there is going to be a parliamentary election, we'll see a somewhat negative reaction on the market. If not, we will probably see a positive reaction," Sentchoukov said.
Another election would simply prolong the absence of a stable government with which the IMF could talk. And the fund could not return to Ukraine too soon.
The finance ministry has conceded that although foreign debt repayments are light this year, the situation with domestic debt was "difficult and tense". It wants to borrow abroad to cover debt coming due, especially in the bumper month of April.
Some analysts have wondered whether with the departure of incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, under whom relations with Russia deteriorated, Moscow would be more forthcoming with financing to its neighbour.
In any case, they say the domestic debt situation is crucial to Ukraine -- as foreign markets were closed to Kiev last year and problems grew with the IMF, the finance ministry began issuing more and more short-term debt with sky-high yields.
The government could survive as it has done by demanding that the central bank and state-owned banks buy new debt to replace the old. But this will raise the traditionally reasonable debt to GDP ratio and has severe inflationary risks as the central bank prints money to buy the bonds.
In the meantime, a sense of frustration with the lack of a stable government exists amongst banks and companies in Ukraine.
"We're ready to invest money in Ukraine -- this is a healthy, an excellent market," Alexander Vedyakhyn, First Deputy Chairman of Russia's Sberbank unit in Ukraine, told a conference earlier this week.
"But at the moment, we don't have the most important thing -- clarity. And unfortunately, for as long as we don't have this, it is very difficult to talk about investing in Ukraine's economy." - Reuters