“Credit extension is going
to be low for the next two to three years, unless we see some real recovery in
economic growth,” FirstRand Chief Executive Officer Johan Burger said by
phone from Johannesburg on Thursday. “
Banks are reining in lending as President Jacob Zuma’s administration struggles to reignite growth in the continent’s most industrialized economy and cut unemployment, which has reached a 14-year high. Business confidence is at its lowest level since 1985 in the wake of efforts to diminish the central bank’s independence, eight failed opposition attempts to unseat Zuma and confusion over new mining rules.
FirstRand, the continent’s largest lender by market value, on Thursday reported net interest income growth of 7 percent for the 12 months through June compared with an increase of 18 percent in fiscal 2016. Standard Bank Group Ltd., Barclays Africa Group Ltd. and Nedbank Group Ltd. all published first-half results in August that showed a similar pattern. While earnings are still increasing, helped by cost-containment and lower impairments, it’s getting tougher to keep the momentum going.
Increases in revenue will be
muted over the next 12 months as lending slows, said Adrian Cloete, banks
analyst at PSG Wealth in
FirstRand doesn’t expect to see improvements in impairment levels and is focusing on expanding smaller parts of its business like insurance and investment management to diversify earnings, the CEO said. “When you don’t have a lot of top line growth, cost management becomes critical.”
A 25 basis-point interest
rate cut by
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S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings cut the nation’s foreign-currency credit rating to junk in April after the president fired his respected finance minister and replaced him with someone with no financial experience. A succession battle within the ruling party over who will succeed Zuma as president of the African National Congress in December has also spurred infighting and hindered the delivery of government services.
It’s only a matter of time
before local-currency debt is slashed to junk, according to Adrian Saville,
chief executive officer of Cannon Asset Managers in