JOHANNESBURG - The landscape remains largely unchanged, but hopes of a positive outcome from US-China trade talks at the G20 summit is driving markets stronger, with the US treasury secretary alluding to progress during a statement ahead of the summit according to Bianca Botes, Treasury Partner at Peregrine Treasury Solutions
If the bets continue for a positive conclusion the rand can strengthen as high as R14.08/$ but a negative outcome would see the rand decline to R14.50 quite easily.
China and the US make progress on reaching a deal that eases the tension between the two nations and restores some risk appetite in the market;
The two nations part ways post G20 with no progress and aggregated tension, with Trump moving to impose tariffs on all remaining goods, as per his threat earlier this month.
All eyes will thus remain on the G20 for now, while data will play second fiddle.
The SARB quarterly bulletin will be released this morning with local PPI following later in the day. Consumer inflation and confidence as well as business climate data are some of the key points due from the EU. The US is set to release weekly jobless claims followed by GDP figures and quarterly corporate profit data.
Any mention of the trade talks by the US will impact on the currency markets and we expect some volatility. The range is likely to widen today, following an extremely flat week and we expect activity between R14.15 and R14.35.
The rand is currently trading at R14.22/$, R16.16/€ and R18.04/£.
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