Load shedding Stage 5, 6 and 7 have a been a norm over the last few months.
Those stages are just the tip of the iceberg as some areas have been experiencing over Stage 8 bouts a day of load shedding and blackouts leading into weeks without electricity.
However, this has been a norm in townships over the past four years. Having electricity is a rarity for the poor and marginalised in South Africa.
Last week I had the pleasure of calling in on PowerFM a radio show hosted by Pabi Moloi, whose is a well seasoned smart and intelligent TV and radio personality.
This time, the topic of energy happened to be the centre of debate. Afrobarometer, a pan-African, independent, research network, had just released its research on energy. This naturally caught my attention and I decided to call in.
Normally I am on PowerFM regularly as a guest to discuss developments pertaining to energy and while normally I wouldn’t just randomly phone in, I had major beef with the “so-called research” by Afrobarometer.
I don’t agree with what the report - “Amid electricity crisis, South Africans want end to government monopoly” states Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 644, by Asafika Mpako and Preston Govindasamy - painted as real life picture in South Africa. In fact I find the report misleading.
Reading the research’s opening lines you would be convinced that “South Africans” truly “want an end to government monopoly” on electricity as the Afrobarometer research claims. But that is far from the truth and here are the reason why.
Firstly, the study was conducted as a sample research based on interviewing around 1582 survey respondents during November and December of 2022.
The rule of thumb is that surveys are not a real life case scenario because they are not drawn from a National Referendum and cannot then be a true reflection of how the majority of citizens are feeling at the time.
So Afrobarometer’s survey communications team should not mislead its sample research findings to be a true and accurate reflection of citizens mood.
The sample research represent a remote tiny view of reality on the ground. The results of the report cannot be construed to mean that the overwhelming majority percentage of South Africans wants to see the end of government monopoly in energy as the survey claims.
We should read the survey results for what it is - just a sample survey and not an overall feelings and emotions on the ground
In retrospect the report insinuates that the government should slow down its pace of investment into energy and the power sector and shift its focus away from driving more projects public in the energy sector.
Key Findings: the report states that:
“Almost six in 10 citizens (59%) agree or strongly agree that Eskom must be privatised to ensure effectiveness in the supply of electricity. Support for privatisation is weaker among poor respondents (50%) and those with no formal education (47%) than among their better-off and more educated counterparts.
“Three-fourths (76%) of South Africans say the government should allow other actors to generate and distribute electricity,“ it states
Looking at the future of electricity supply, the report questions what this will look like in South Africa.
According to the report, about six in 10 citizens (59%) say that to ensure an effective supply of electricity, Eskom must be privatised.
Residents of the Western Cape (73%) recorded the strongest support for this proposition, while only about half of respondents agree in the North-West (49%), Mpumalanga (51%), and Gauteng (52%). Support for privatisation is relatively weak among poor citizens (50%) and those with no formal schooling (47%).
“A greater majority (76%) of citizens support ending Eskom’s monopoly, saying that the government should allow other actors to generate and distribute electricity in South Africa. Only 13% of South Africans disagree with this idea. Support for opening up the electricity market is highest in the Free State (89%) and the Northern Cape (84%). Citizens with no formal education record the least support (55%),” stated the report, which was starting to appear more like a spin doctoring survey report.
Yes South Africans are frustrated with load shedding. But to take that frustration and position a policy influencing position statement that suggests that South Africans want an end to Eskom and a government monopoly on energy is blatantly misleading and should be discouraged.
In the absence of sound academic support on key debates and policy positions, you can find from time to time surveys such as the Afrobarometer’s attempting to steal the public limelight.
This is sinister as it attempts to hijack and influence public policy in a clandestine way by parading these types of survey outcomes as public fact, which of course is very much unsubstantiated.
Public discourse and policy decisions cannot be influenced by single narrative agendas. If South Africans want an end to Eskom and government monopoly let that decision be tested through a proper public participation process of either Parliament or through a national referendum.
A mere survey can never be the basis for influencing policy-makers on deciding public policy direction.
Adil Nchabeleng is President of Transform RSA and an Independent Energy Expert.
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