IMF projects Indian economy to be fastest-growing next financial year
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INTERNATIONAL - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India's economy to bounce back by 11.5 percent in the next financial year, making it the fastest-growing major economy, and attributed it to the effect of easing of lockdown measures last year.
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update released in Washington last week increased the forecast by 2.7 percent from its earlier forecast made in October last year, "reflecting carry over from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased".
The report, however, expected the gross domestic product (GDP) to dip in 2022-23 fiscal year to 6.8 per cent.
The report put the decline in India's economy in the current fiscal year because of the Covid-19 pandemic at 8 per cent.
Globally, the report was buoyed by the deployment of vaccines to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.
The report said that the world economy declined by 3.5 percent during the 2020 calendar year and would grow by 5.5 percent this year and 4.2 percent the next year.
"Multiple vaccine approvals and the launch of vaccination in some countries in December have raised hopes of an eventual end to the pandemic," it said.
The report added, "Economic data released after the October 2020 WEO forecast suggest stronger-than-projected momentum on average across regions in the second half of 2020."
China's economy grew by 2.3 percent last calendar year and is forecast to grow by 8.1 percent this year and 5.6 percent the next year, the IMF said.
The IMF estimate for India for the current fiscal and the forecast for the next fiscal are better than the numbers projected by the World Bank and the United Nations earlier this month.
The World Bank had forecast India's economy to fall by 9.6 percent during the current financial year but recover by 5.4 percent the next financial year if there is wide vaccination against Covid-19.
The UN estimated India's economy to decline by 5.7 percent in 2020-21 and forecast it to rise by 7 percent in 2021-22 and 5.6 per cent in 2022-23.