London - Britain’s
Supreme Court has ruled that Prime Minister Theresa May needs an act of
Parliament to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to begin negotiating the
UK’s departure from the European Union. How exactly will the parliamentary
procedure work and what does that mean for Brexit?
What did the Supreme Court demand?
The judges
decided 8-3 that an act of Parliament is needed. That means May has to present
a bill, which can be amended, and which has to go through both chambers of
Parliament, including the unelected House of Lords.
How long would the process take?
In theory, bills
can complete the entire parliamentary process in a single day. But that’s only
happened in emergencies and where there’s cross-party agreement. It more
usually take weeks -- or months.
There are a
series of stages in each chamber, with votes at each stage, and lots of
opportunities for dissenters to propose amendments. Both houses must agree on
the wording of the final law.
Will Parliament
block Article 50?
Almost certainly
not. The referendum result makes it hard for lawmakers to vote against leaving
the EU. Most of May’s Conservative Party now supports exit, and the opposition
Labour Party has said it won’t block Article 50 - though individual lawmakers
may rebel. The unelected Lords will likewise be reluctant to defy the will of
the people as expressed in the referendum.
What will Brexit opponents do, then?
They can put
roadblocks in the government’s way, adding amendments to the legislation. May’s
Commons majority is small. Most members campaigned against Brexit, and many
have reservations about the flavour of the divorce that May is going for. If
someone can find the right amendment, he or she could well carry the chamber.
Who can put forward an amendment?
Any member of
Parliament, but Speaker John Bercow decides which ones get debated.
What might the
dissenters ask for?
They’re likely
to go for options that bind the government’s hands and highlight the problems
as the Brexit talks proceed. Requirements for regular parliamentary updates on
the progress of negotiations would mean ministers having to face repeated
questioning on their strategy, and possibly repeated embarrassment if things
aren’t going well.
Labour will seek
to keep “full, tariff-free access to the single market” and make sure the
government remains accountable to Parliament throughout the process. The
Liberal Democrats, who have nine lawmakers out of 350, will vote against
triggering Brexit without a commitment that the final deal goes to another
referendum.
Read also: #Brexit: a plan at last?
A requirement to
hold a second referendum on the outcome of the negotiations would see a repeat
of the 2016 plebiscite: but this time voters would have to choose with a
precise alternative to EU membership on the table. It remains moot, though,
under what terms the EU would have the UK back once the triggering of Article
50 had set the clock ticking on the two-year exit countdown.
So what does this mean for Brexit?
As Theresa May
is fond of saying, “Brexit means Brexit.” The ruling doesn’t change that, but
it does make it harder for May and her team to push ahead with their vision of
a so-called hard Brexit. It may also slow the process down and give other
parties a greater say.