London - World shares climbed to a
three-month high on Thursday as encouraging Chinese data and a
record-high Wall Street kept traders upbeat before an expected
extension of the European Central Bank's already generous
stimulus programme.
Asia shares had risen to one-month highs after Wall Street
rose to another record and European stocks made it four
gains in a row, with the euro also near a month high on
the prospect of ECB support.
The bank might signal an eventual scaling down of the aid,
but most economists expect it to extend its 80 billion
euro-a-month bond buying until at least next September and add a
few tweaks to keep it running smoothly.
"Post the U.S. elections and Italian referendum, the market
is overwhelmingly expecting unchanged monetary policy," said
Aberdeen Asset Management Investment Manager Patrick O'Donnell.
"The risk is we get a more hawkish interpretation of
inflation dynamics ... and any whiff that they are not committed
to the asset-purchase programme will see the market react
negatively."
Bond markets drifted lower as traders retreated to the
sidelines before the ECB meets. It will announce its decision at
1145 GMT and hold a news conference at 1230 GMT.
Risk appetite got a boost earlier when China reported upbeat
trade figures, with exports and imports both beating forecasts.
Resource imports were strong, a major reason prices for bulk
commodities have been rising.
The resource-heavy and China-sensitive Australian market
jumped 1.2 percent, as did MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.
A record peak for Samsung helped lift South
Korea 2 percent and Tokyo's Nikkei gained 1.45
percent as it brushed off a disappointing downward revision to
Japan's third-quarter growth.
"The (China data) improvement reflects a strengthening in
global demand, with recent business surveys suggesting that
developed economies are on track to end the year on a strong
note," said Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard.
Extension question
The bullish mood around the ECB outweighed news that Moody's
had changed its outlook on Italy to negative, warning it may
downgrade the credit rating if the country's deteriorating
economic and debt trend was not reversed. http://bit.ly/2hhI7xM
The euro took the move with aplomb, edging up to $1.0783
from an early trough of $1.0750.
European stock markets were up 0.3 to 0.7 percent and
Italian bank shares hit their highest since June as
Moody's cut was more than countered by reports Rome would step
in to rescue troubled bank Monte dei Paschi
.
Markets have been surprisingly buoyant in the wake of
Italy's "No" vote last weekend on a constitutional reform
referendum, in part on hopes for continued support from the ECB,
which may also widen the type of bonds it buys.
All of which has been putting downward pressure on yields of
European peripheral debt, with buying spilling over to German
bunds and US Treasuries. Yields on 30-year Treasury debt fell
by 6 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest daily decline since
August.
That nudged the dollar down to 113.40 yen, while the
dollar index dipped 0.3 percent, having cooled off after
its hot streak following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, with traders now waiting for a Federal
Reserve U.S. rate hike next week.
The prospect of higher borrowing costs has not fazed Wall
Street, which hit records on expectations a Trump administration
will eventually deliver fiscal stimulus and deregulation.
US futures pointed to a solid start later with
jobless claims figures the main data on tap and the latest
additions to Trump's team also being run through.
"Investments and policies that have done well in a low-rate,
low-growth world have reached their peak. Long-term winners
could be supplanted in 2017," said analysts at BofA Merrill
Lynch in their year ahead outlook.
In commodity markets, oil steadied after slipping on doubts
that production cuts promised by OPEC and Russia would be deep
enough to end a supply overhang.
Brent futures were up 18 cent at $53.22 and US crude inched to $49.95, and Russia announced it had sold
a 10.5 billion-euro, 19.5 percent stake in oil giant Rosneft
to Qatar and commodities trader Glencore.
Gold nudged higher and commodities including iron ore
and coking coal held recent hefty gains as Chinese demand drove
steel prices to their highest since April 2014.
China's imports of iron ore, crude oil, coal, soybeans and
copper all surged in November, customs data showed.
Back in the currency market, New Zealand's dollar was the
biggest gainer amongst the major currencies ahead of the ECB
after its central bank head made it clear the bank was probably
done with cutting interest rates.