Not again! That's what more than a few investors are thinking amid signs that yet another much-ballyhooed Japanese recovery is fizzling out.
The latest indication that it might be wiser to own Japanese bonds than stocks this year is the 14-point drop in the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey. The measure of confidence among large manufacturers is now the lowest in a year.
Equally discouraging to those betting on a strong revival, consumer prices had their biggest drop in 20 months in February, extending seven years of deflation. Such data come as Japan tries to pull convincingly out of its fourth recession since 1991; technically, it ended in late 2004.
So, is this recovery any different from others that didn't pan out? Yes, though that doesn't mean it will last or be as robust as many observers and investors hope.
The good news is that Japan's banking system is no longer a crisis waiting to happen, and gobalisation has catalysed many other companies to restructure.
A new book by Jeff Kington, Japan's Quiet Transformation, details the extent to which incremental changes here and there are culminating in a healthier economy. It argues that reforms to Japan's employment system have left the economy nimbler, and changes to the legal system have brought more accountability.
Look no further than the recent arrest of Yoshiaki Tsutsumi, a former chairman of Japan's Seibu Railway, on charges of falsifying financial statements and insider trading. Once the world's richest man, many Japanese figured the well-connected 70 year old was above the law. Not so.
Or how about the hostile takeover by Livedoor, Takafumi Horie's Web investment company, which is trying to grab parts of Japan's biggest media group. Such a public spectacle was unthinkable just a few years ago. That it's unfolding at all, and that Japan's courts are helping to level the field, is a sign of progress.
Yet for all the good happening in Japan, the economy still can't seem to get out of first gear. The reason: not enough of Japan's revivals are self-reinforcing. The most important ingredient to returning to anything approaching the heady growth of the 1980s is the Japanese consumer, and consumers have their doubts.
This recovery is arguably the most organic since 1990, yet it wouldn't have been possible without a boom in the global economy. While the private sector is doing its part, the government is dragging its feet on reforms. One key speed bump is the lack of pension system reform, which would give households more confidence to spend more of their vast savings.
And Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's government has not reduced Japan's reliance on debt. Markets are growing wary of Japan's massive debt, which is approaching 150 percent of gross domestic product.
Polls show a lack confidence in Koizumi's economic leadership. The jaunty 63 year old certainly appears different from Japanese leaders of recent memory, but while Koizumi talks a good game, many economic repair pledges haven't happened.
Then there are the uncomfortable reminders of how much of the old Japan coexists with the new one. Isuzu Motors, Japan's biggest truck maker, said tests of its vehicles on public roads caused 92 accidents.
It's the second Japanese truck maker to admit to breaching the country's safety rules. Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus recalled almost 1 million trucks and buses to fix defects, which the company hid for over 30 years.
Yes, Japan is changing, yet unsightly vestiges of Japan Inc - profits over public safety - remain. Events at Isuzu and Mitsubishi conjure up memories of falsified safety reports at certain nuclear reactors and food industry scandals at Snow Brand Foods and Nippon Meat Packers.
This recovery is indeed different. The trouble is that it's the government's to lose, and it's not clear the window of opportunity afforded by today's growth is being used to boost tomorrow's.
Herein lies the risk that Japan will continue walking in place. - Bloomberg