Stellenbosch academics say alternative strategy could double GDP over 10 years
Cape Town - In the wake of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recovery plan, two Stellenbosch University academics, Nthabiseng Moleko and Mark Swilling, have released an alternative strategy that they claim could see GDP doubling in 10 years.
In their report, “New Wine into New Wineskins”, Moleko and Swilling say their plan would see “10 million people moving out of poverty, and unemployment cut by two-thirds to 12% by 2030”.
Moleko said: “Industrialisation must be seen as a key growth driver. While the business-as-usual scenario for the next decade sees the economy stuck in low growth with high rates of unemployment, poverty and inequality, modelling of the impact of the recommended policy interventions indicates an inclusive growth path that will deliver real and significant benefits to the private sector and working-class and poor families.
“South Africa’s unemployment challenges are due to ineffective interventions rather than lack of funding. Labour-absorbing strategies are proposed. Sectors with potential to absorb large numbers of unemployed people - agro-processing, plastics, metals, construction machinery and renewable energy - should be prioritised.”
In his letter to the nation yesterday, Ramaphosa said: “We have to achieve an economic recovery that is swift and inclusive Public employment is an instrument that can do all of the above.”
Business Leadership SA chief executive Busi Mavuso said: “Without the right framework for drawing on the private sector, there is a risk that other agendas interfere in the process of delivering the recovery programme.”
Anchor Capital’s Nolan Wapenaar said: “There have been a number of economic revival plans in South Africa, and the market is asking whether this latest plan from government will get any more traction.”